AUDUSD – Beware of bull trap
A larger corrective downtrend started from 1.1085 (July’11 high) appears to be still in force for AUDUSD which may be a large triangle consolidation in a range between 1.0855 and 0.9580 ( Alt- double zigzag corrective swing, which allows for a retest of the Oct’11 swing low at 0.9390 on multimonth basis). A break below 0.9580/0.9390 however deepens the correction toward 0.9145.
AUDUSD is pulling back from 1.0615. Given the relative weakness of the currency compare to other risk assets and loss of daily momentum, there is a possibility that a medium term top has been already in place at 1.0615. The 1.0435/1.0380 support is critical now (watch the daily trendline support). A break below confirms reversal and refocuses on 1.0175/1.0100 initially. A move above 1.0610 would expose the tough 1.0700/1.0850 resistance where it is likely to fail.
