Tradional forecastors
Merril Lynch favors: Bonds, Japan, US Infrastructure, Defense stocks
UBS favors: Bonds, Defensive sector, Healthcare, Consumer staples, Telecoms
Gary Shilling: Sell homebuiders, stocks, bonds. Sell your home because real estate is going lower. Sell commodities. Buy the dollar and bonds.
Fortune’s top 10 promising stocks: MO DELL NLY DVN DO FLR JNJ MHS PFE POT
Smart Money Top Stocks: DUK JNJ MSFT SO AAPL CSCO XRAY MHS NLY GE LOW RIG
Forbes: DGIT ZLC SPG CSCO NOV PH CAT LVS
Consensus projections: not many strong convictions either way, but…
40% positive
60% bearish
Visionary forecastors
Gerald Celente:
- Collapse of 09′ – retail (more big chains will close)
- Commercial real estate collapse
- Anti-government sentiment begins
- Greatest Depression (Fed finangling, Gov’t intervention, and Wall St.’s gambling)
- Decline & fall of American Empire
- Crime/Self protection will rise
- 2nd American Revolution
- Obamarama – wildly marketed as political new age. This is more slight of hand.
- Economic slimfast – spending/food diet
- Whole health healing
- Little people squeeze
- Regenerative medicine
- College crash
Saxo Bank (out of the box)
- Revolution in Iran
- Crude oil could touch $25/barrel
- S&P could fall to 500
- Italy pull out of European Union
- China @ 0% growth
- Asian currencies peg to Chinese currency
Byron Wein
- S&P rises to 1200
- Gold rises to $1200/ounce
- Oil to $80/barrel
- Dollar falls
- China growth rates exceed 7%
- NY state threatens bankruptcy
- Housing starts reach bottom in 3rd qrt
- Savings rate fails to improve beyond 3%
- Barack Obama slows plans for troop withdrawal
Karl Denninger
- Economy will not recover in 09′
- Unemployment at 15%
- Deflation is major theme
- Housing prices continue to decline
- Fed fails to fix economy
- S&P could touch 500 in next 12-24 months, maybe crash to 300. Dow at 3000.
- Metals won’t be safe haven
- Dollar will not collapse
- Commercial real estate will collapse
- States will default, possibly starting with California
- Early stages of economic downturn
- Gold is favorite investment
- Emerging markets should fair well
