Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) plunged below the lows of the previous 7 years on 11/15/11, reconfirming the preexisting major Bear trend. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA of the EFA/SPY Ratio every day since 1/14/11.

Financial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell further below its falling 50-day SMA on 11/15/11 and remains clearly bearish.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the highs of the previous 5 weeks on 11/15/11. UUP rose above its 50-day SMA again on 11/14/11, turning technically bullish.

The stock market appears to be correcting and consolidating after its May-October downtrend. That is normal, since markets don’t move in straight lines. There is a better than even chance that the downtrend may resume soon.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,257.81) rose 6.03 points or 0.48% on Tuesday, November 15, 2011.

Over the past 3 weeks, SPX appears to have played with and stalled out near (that is, modestly above and below, not to be interpreted as a precise point) its widely-followed, 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is now at 1272.10. This appears to be Resistance.

The high price volatility of recent months is typical of bear markets. In contrast, bull markets are much less volatile.

Longer-term indicators still are far from confirming any change in the Bearish Primary Tide Trend. For example, 50-day SMAs are well below 200-day SMAs for most stocks and indexes.

Ripples and Secondary Reactions opposite to the Dow Theory Primary Tide Trend lure short-term traders into trying to trade a bounce. Price corrections against the larger trends are normal and expected, of course, but playing counter-trend bounces is risky. The mood can switch from “risk on” to “risk off” overnight, leaving the too-clever trader suddenly holding the bag.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Averages, Industrial and Transportation, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. Both Averages would have to close above their closing price highs for the year to indicate a “Turn in the Tide”.

A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Includes Top Ten ETFs, Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings, charts, support and resistance levels, and much more.
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Stock Market Indicators

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 9-week lows and fell further below its 50-day SMA on 11/10/11. The Ratio has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. This is cause for concern.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell to test its 50-day SMA on 11/9/11. Although technically still neutral, it would not take very much weakness from here in the Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) to turn the trend bearish. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 11/9/11, thereby turning bearish again. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) plunged below the lows of the previous 7 years on 11/15/11, reconfirming the preexisting major Bear trend. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA of the EFA/SPY Ratio every day since 1/14/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) lost downside momentum last week after falling from 10/3/11 to 11/4/11 into the neutral zone, between the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains neutral for the medium term, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price also remains neutral.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed above its 50-day SMA on 11/11/11. Although technically neutral, it would not take very much weakness from here in the Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) to turn the trend bearish. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price remains neutral.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,257.81) Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1272.10, 200-day SMA
1263.21, high of 11/3/2011
1258.07, low of 6/16/11

S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,257.81) Potential Support
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1256.55, high of 10/24/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1221.06, low of 10/26/2011
1215.42, low of 11/1/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1190.58, low of 10/13/2011
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 11/14/11, turning technically bullish. Support 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 119.49 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) crossed above its 50-day SMA again on 11/14/11, turning technically bullish. Support 103.57, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 104.90 and 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/10/11, turning technically neutral again. Longer term, JNK/LQD broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11, which reconfirmed a bearish major trend.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) remains technically neutral between its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Short term, since making a high on 10/27/11, TIP/IEF appears to be rolling over, probably resuming its previous downtrend.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the highs of the previous 5 weeks on 11/15/11. UUP rose above its 50-day SMA again on 11/14/11, turning technically bullish. Support 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.03, 22.32, and 22.63.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 5 weeks on 11/14/11–this following a break below the lows of the previous 10 months on 10/3/11. DBA remains below 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day SMAs. DBA remains bearish in all time frames.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) appears overbought for the short-term. Moreover, the 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, implying a neutral medium-term trend. Longer term, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 36.49, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 38.57, 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) consolidated gains after breaking out above 6-week highs on 11/8/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish trend. Price remains bullishly above its 50- and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, new highs on 9/6/11 confirmed a major bull market. Support: 168.83, 163.61, 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has been consolidating major losses in a neutral trading range since making a low on 8/8/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) shows little price momentum over the past 2 weeks, so let’s call it neutral. Longer term, SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. SLV fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/19/11, fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11, and remains bearishly below both SMAs. Support 32.23, 31.50, 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 11/9/11, which might be bearish for the short term. Medium term, SLV/GLD has stayed in bearish position, below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs, every day since 8/4/11. Longer term, the SLV/GLD Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 11 months on 9/30/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend. SLV/GLD has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below the lows of the previous 13 trading days on 11/10/11 and remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.93% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
0.75% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
4.79% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
1.06% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
4.98% , ASH , ASHLAND
2.71% , PEP , PEPSICO
3.71% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
5.02% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
3.38% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
1.39% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
4.14% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
0.78% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
4.49% , QLGC , QLOGIC
1.42% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.76% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
1.78% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
5.46% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
3.13% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
2.12% , RAI , Reynolds American
0.89% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
4.59% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
1.23% , IGN , Networking, IGN
3.37% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
1.62% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
10.75% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
1.84% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
2.91% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
0.65% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
1.71% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
1.11% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
0.67% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
1.35% , XLK , Technology SPDR, XLK
1.51% , FDX , FEDEX

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.72% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-2.73% , CVX , CHEVRONTEXACO
-3.11% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-0.87% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.92% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.78% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
-3.64% , SPLS , STAPLES
-2.56% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-3.07% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-2.68% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-0.13% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-2.05% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-1.67% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-2.43% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
-1.93% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-1.06% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.95% , TLAB , TELLABS
-0.35% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.34% , AVP , AVON
-2.43% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-0.58% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.01% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-0.69% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
-1.31% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.33% , D , DOMINION RSCS
-0.22% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.27% , C , CITIGROUP
-0.88% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.10% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-1.36% , F , FORD MOTOR
-0.53% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-1.20% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-0.84% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.75% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.54% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.50% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.42% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.41% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.39% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.39% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.35% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.31% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.29% China 25 iS, FXI
1.28% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.27% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.27% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.26% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.26% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.23% Networking, IGN
1.18% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.15% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.14% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.11% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.04% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.04% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.03% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.02% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.02% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.00% Water Resources, PHO
0.99% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.98% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.96% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.96% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.96% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.94% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.94% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.91% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.90% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.87% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.80% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.79% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.75% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.73% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.72% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.69% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.69% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.69% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.65% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.63% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.62% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.62% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.61% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.59% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.59% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.56% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.56% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.56% Russia MV, RSX
0.56% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.54% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.54% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.52% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.51% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.50% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.49% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.49% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.48% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.47% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.46% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.46% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.45% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.43% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.42% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.39% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.38% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.37% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.36% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.35% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.32% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.31% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.27% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.25% Singapore Index, EWS
0.25% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.24% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.24% South Korea Index, EWY
0.24% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.22% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.22% Australia Index, EWA
0.20% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.20% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.19% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.17% Global 100, IOO
0.17% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.13% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.13% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.12% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.11% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.09% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.05% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.04% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.02% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.00% Japan Index, EWJ
0.00% European VIPERs, VGK
0.00% Energy DJ, IYE
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.03% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.08% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.10% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.11% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.11% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.13% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.13% Dividend International, PID
-0.13% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.14% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.15% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.18% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.20% Energy Global, IXC
-0.22% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.22% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.23% Italy Index, EWI
-0.26% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.26% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.28% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.35% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.38% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.47% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.53% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-0.58% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.58% Canada Index, EWC
-0.60% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.69% Germany Index, EWG
-0.71% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.81% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.86% Spain Index, EWP
-0.87% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.88% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.90% India PS, PIN
-0.92% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.21% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.23% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.31% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.35% Austria Index, EWO
-1.67% France Index, EWQ