Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 12/4/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 12/4/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 years on 12/4/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX) rose to a new intraday price high in midsession but could not hold its gains and closed moderately lower on Thursday. Short-term, upside momentum has slowed over the past week.
SPX closed above all previous closing prices on Wednesday 12/3/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Seasonal tendencies are bullish for December.
NYSE total volume fell 5% to a level 3% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/24/14 when the both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 14 years on 11/28/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. In addition, QQQ absolute price closed at a new high on 11/28/14.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/3/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 9 years on 12/3/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 12/4/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/3/14. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 12/1/14, confirming renewed bearish momentum. IWM/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been relatively weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 12/2/14, reconfirming renewed bearish momentum. MDY/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/10/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute closing price rose above its highs of the previous 6 weeks on 11/28/14, reconfirming renewed upside momentum. TLT crossed above its 50-day SMA on 9/25/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 118.21, 112.73, 110.34, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute closing price rose above its highs of the previous 6 weeks on 11/28/14, reconfirming renewed upside momentum. IEF crossed above its 50-day SMA on 10/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 104.45, 102.45, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 108.88, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 12/1/14, reconfirming renewed downside momentum. JNK/LQD fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/15/14. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/1/14 turning systematically bearish. Absolute price of JNK fell further below 4-week lows on 11/19/14. Price has turned unusually volatile since 6/24/14.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 12/4/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 9/18/14.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest closing price level in more than 4 years on 12/3/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 23.20, 22.45, 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 24.22, 25.89, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 years on 12/4/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Support 22.74, 16.70, and 10.35. Resistance 30.17, 31.63, 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Support: 102.28 and 84.92. Resistance: 120.50, 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 11/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Absolute price of GDX fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/31/14.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.09, 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 11/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 years on 11/28/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.46% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
7.16% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
3.02% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
1.51% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
3.58% , KR , KROGER
3.84% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
2.84% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
0.94% , AON , AON
0.60% , LB , L Brands, LB
1.28% , KEY , KEYCORP
0.24% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.35% , MHFI.K , McGraw Hill Financial, Inc., MHFI.K
1.28% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
0.63% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
1.58% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
0.86% , CHD , Church & Dwight
0.89% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
0.53% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
1.07% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
0.94% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
0.60% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
0.80% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
0.83% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
1.04% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
0.18% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.94% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
0.92% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
3.62% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
0.87% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
0.56% , CL , COLGATE
0.30% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.07% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
0.74% , BC , BRUNSWICK
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.47% , BMS , BEMIS
-0.44% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
-0.33% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-1.09% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-1.44% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-3.92% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-1.69% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.44% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.51% , KBH , KB HOME
-2.53% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-0.68% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-1.69% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-4.10% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
-0.76% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-0.86% , NEE , NextEra Energy Resources LLC
-1.26% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-2.11% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-1.78% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-1.90% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
-1.22% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-0.91% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-4.55% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-1.73% , AVP , AVON
-0.67% , PKI , PERKINELMER
-0.44% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
-1.30% , NCR , NCR
-1.26% , CR , CRANE
-1.25% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.19% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.66% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-0.34% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-0.74% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-0.51% , QLGC , QLOGIC
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.02% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.98% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.03% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.84% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.49% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.35% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.30% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.30% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.29% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.28% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.28% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.28% , Australia Index, EWA
0.26% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.25% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.25% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.24% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.23% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.20% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.18% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.17% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.16% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.16% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.14% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.13% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.12% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.12% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.12% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.08% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.06% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.06% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.06% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.06% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.05% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.04% , India PS, PIN
0.04% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.03% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.00% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.00% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.00% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.02% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.02% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.02% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.04% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.04% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.04% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.05% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.06% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.06% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.07% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.07% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.07% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.08% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.08% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.08% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.08% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.08% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.09% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.10% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.10% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.10% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.10% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.10% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.11% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.12% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.12% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.12% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.13% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.13% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.14% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.15% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.15% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.16% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.16% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.16% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.17% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.18% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.19% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.19% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.20% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.20% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.20% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.21% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.21% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.23% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.24% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.24% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.24% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.25% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.30% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.30% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.30% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.31% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.32% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.32% , Global 100, IOO
-0.33% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.34% , France Index, EWQ
-0.35% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.36% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.37% , Dividend International, PID
-0.37% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.39% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.40% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.40% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.41% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.43% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.44% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.44% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.46% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.48% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.48% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.50% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.52% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.52% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.54% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.54% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.58% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.59% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.60% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.69% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.70% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.71% , Networking, IGN
-0.73% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.76% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.83% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.87% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.87% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.91% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.94% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.95% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.97% , Energy Global, IXC
-1.10% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.20% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.25% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.26% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.44% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.60% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.69% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.69% , Italy Index, EWI
-1.86% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.90% , Canada Index, EWC
-2.66% , Russia MV, RSX
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
none
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
2040.37, low of 11/19/2014
2030.44, low of 11/13/2014
2001.01, low of 11/4/2014
1991.39, 50-day SMA
1940.37, 200-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1820.66, low of 10/15/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
