Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 10/24/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 10/24/14.
Utilities and Health Care sectors are relatively strong and gaining strength.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,964.58, up 0.71%) closed above the closing prices of the previous 11 trading days, thereby reconfirming its preexisting short-term minor bounce. SPX remains above its 200-day SMA but remains below its 50-day SMA, now at 1,966.94. The day-to-day trend is bullish, but the larger trends may be questionable.
NYSE total volume fell 19% to a level 8% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at +129, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been present for months, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. Currently, the U.S. stock market is in a short-term, minor Ripple upside correction within a medium-term Secondary Reaction to the downside.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rebounded since making a low on 10/16/14 and is now systematically bullish again. The absolute price of QQQ also is systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 10/23/14. BKF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 9/10/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 10/24/14. EEM/SPY has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 10/24/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell sharply since 10/13/14, and the OEF/SPY trend has turned neutral again. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose to a new high on 10/15/14. TLT crossed above its 50-day SMA on 9/25/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 118.78, 112.73, 110.34, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 17 months on 10/15/14. IEF crossed above its 50-day SMA on 10/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 102.45, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/15/14 and remains systematically bearish. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/1/14. Absolute price of JNK has turned unusually volatile since 6/24/14.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 9/18/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 2 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 27 months on 10/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 10/17/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price of GDX has been trending down since it peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/22/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/16/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.04% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
8.40% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
6.90% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
4.26% , STT , STATE STREET
4.96% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
4.17% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
0.43% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.26% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
5.10% , NCR , NCR
3.92% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
1.73% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
0.88% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
2.30% , CB , CHUBB
0.61% , PID , Dividend International, PID
2.47% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
3.56% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
0.78% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.82% , VO , MidCap VIPERs, VO
2.53% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
0.46% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.26% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
1.10% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
2.15% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
0.83% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
0.44% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
3.29% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
0.92% , SPHQ.K , S&P 500 High Quality PS, SPHQ
2.35% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
0.44% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
0.84% , AZO , AUTOZONE
0.25% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
0.98% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
0.82% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-8.34% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
-4.31% , F , FORD MOTOR
-1.73% , ALTR , ALTERA
-2.65% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
-0.61% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.36% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.78% , ITT , ITT INDS
-0.58% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-0.09% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.56% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
-0.49% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
-0.09% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.37% , NBR , NABORS
-0.71% , CR , CRANE
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.34% , Brazil Index, EWZ
2.66% , Latin Am 40, ILF
2.19% , Russia MV, RSX
1.55% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.50% , Italy Index, EWI
1.40% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.34% , Austria Index, EWO
1.31% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.20% , Belgium Index, EWK
1.16% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.10% , Spain Index, EWP
1.04% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.01% , Australia Index, EWA
1.00% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.99% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.98% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.97% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.96% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.96% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.95% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.90% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.89% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.88% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.87% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.87% , India PS, PIN
0.87% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.86% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.85% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.83% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.82% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.81% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.81% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.80% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.79% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.79% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.78% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.78% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.78% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.78% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.77% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.77% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.77% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.76% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.75% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.74% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.73% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.72% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.72% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.71% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.71% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.71% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.71% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.70% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.70% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.69% , Global 100, IOO
0.67% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.66% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.66% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.65% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.64% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.63% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.61% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.61% , Dividend International, PID
0.61% , Canada Index, EWC
0.57% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.57% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.57% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.55% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.55% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.54% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.53% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.51% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.50% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.47% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.46% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.46% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.46% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.44% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.44% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.43% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.43% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.41% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.41% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.40% , France Index, EWQ
0.40% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.38% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.36% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.36% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.36% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.35% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.34% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.32% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.28% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.27% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.25% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.24% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.24% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.23% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.22% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.22% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.19% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.17% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.17% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.17% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.13% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.13% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.11% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.11% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.10% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.09% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.04% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.04% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.04% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.04% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.00% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.00% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.00% , Germany Index, EWG
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.05% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.06% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.07% , Networking, IGN
-0.08% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.09% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.09% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.09% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.12% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.13% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.14% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.23% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.30% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.35% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.36% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.48% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.49% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.58% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.63% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.67% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.72% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.73% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.81% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2019.26, high of 9/19/2014
1966.94, 50-day SMA
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1908.60, 200-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1820.66, low of 10/15/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
