Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2 years on 8/8/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,931.59, up 1.15%) absolute price opened higher and worked irregularly upward most of the day. NYSE total volume fell 11% to a level 12% below its 200-day SMA, thereby failing to confirm the price upswing.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at +44, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the stock market has been ignoring for months.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory entered a Secondary Reaction to the downside, as the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average made lower highs and lower lows for more than 3 weeks. Such a downside correction can last several months. Although not part of the Dow Theory, all 3 Dow-Jones Averages (Industrial, Transportation, and Utility) crossed below their 50-day SMAs on 7/31/14, thereby demonstrating price weakness by separate objective method.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 8/7/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose to a 13-year closing price high on 7/23/14 and held its 50-day SMA during the recent minor pullback. The price 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 1/28/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) rose to its highest level in 8 months on 8/4/14 and the rising 50-day SMA crossed above the falling 200-day SMA, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Absolute price is systematically neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2 years on 8/8/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 6 months on 7/29/14 but remains systematically neutral, with 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 7/28/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has turned weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 7/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has turned weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 15 months on 8/8/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish trend. The 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 2/26/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 110.34, 110.54, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 118.94, 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 14 months on 8/8/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish trend. The 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 3/19/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 102.88, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 104.57, 107.62, 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 14 months on 8/1/14 and remains systematically bearish. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/1/14. Absolute price of JNK has turned weak since it peaked at 41.82 on 6/24/14.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 8 weeks on 8/8/14 and remains systematically neutral. The absolute price 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 3/18/14 and remains systematically bullish.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 8/5/14. UUP is currently systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA is rising up toward the 200-day SMA, such that a bullish crossover may be possible in weeks ahead if price rises further. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 months on 7/11/14. DBA crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 4 months on 8/7/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downside correction. Price remains systematically neutral. Long term, USO has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 22.74 on 2/19/09. Support 35.62, 34.97, 34.00, 32.68, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price appears to be base building since hitting a bottom at 114.46 on 12/31/13. GLD appears to be in neutral trading range, with the GLD price crisscrossing its 50-day and 200-day SMAs for several months. Long term, GLD has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 114.46 on 12/31/13. Support: 119.42, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 11 months on 7/28/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 7/9/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks and fell below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 8/4/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Long term, SLV has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 17.75 on 4/27/13. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 weeks on 8/7/14, again confirming a downside correction. The 50-200 SMA remains negative, with 50Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 8/6/14, thereby suggesting a medium-term downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.43% , COH , COACH
1.13% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
8.82% , NVDA , NVIDIA
5.90% , GPS , GAP
4.24% , BIG , BIG LOTS
6.68% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
3.76% , LOW , LOWES
1.52% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
2.53% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.80% , PID , Dividend International, PID
1.13% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
2.45% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
2.64% , TJX , TJX
2.38% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
4.29% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
1.88% , PPL , PPL
2.44% , HD , HOME DEPOT
1.38% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
2.54% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
1.20% , VO , MidCap VIPERs, VO
1.27% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.43% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
3.23% , AGN , ALLERGAN
1.99% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
3.18% , D , DOMINION RSCS
1.69% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
2.28% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
2.00% , NI , NISOURCE
2.50% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
3.26% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
1.61% , F , FORD MOTOR
2.82% , ED , CON ED
1.49% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.24% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
-2.44% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-1.44% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-0.43% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
-1.55% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
-1.28% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-3.57% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-1.10% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-2.27% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-0.81% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.37% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.42% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.11% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-0.10% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
-0.34% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.88% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.71% , South Africa Index, EZA
2.53% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.50% , Russia MV, RSX
2.45% , Spain Index, EWP
2.27% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.00% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.99% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.98% , Italy Index, EWI
1.74% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.67% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.65% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.58% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.55% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.52% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.49% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.43% , France Index, EWQ
1.43% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
1.42% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.41% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.36% , Germany Index, EWG
1.33% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.30% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.28% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.28% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.27% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.24% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.24% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.23% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.21% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.21% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
1.20% , Energy Global, IXC
1.19% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.18% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.16% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
1.16% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.16% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.16% , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.15% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
1.15% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.15% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.15% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.14% , Value VIPERs, VTV
1.13% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.13% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.13% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.13% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.13% , Water Resources, PHO
1.12% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.11% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
1.11% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.10% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.09% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.09% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.09% , India PS, PIN
1.09% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.07% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.07% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.06% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.06% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.05% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.05% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.04% , Austria Index, EWO
1.04% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
1.02% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.01% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.99% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.99% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.98% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.98% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.97% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.95% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.93% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.93% , Networking, IGN
0.92% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.91% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.90% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.90% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.90% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.86% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.86% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.82% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.80% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.80% , Dividend International, PID
0.78% , Global 100, IOO
0.75% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.72% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.71% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.70% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.69% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.69% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.67% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.66% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.66% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.65% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.65% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.61% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.59% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.59% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.56% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.51% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.47% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.43% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.42% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.39% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.38% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.35% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.32% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.31% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.30% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.29% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.26% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.23% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.17% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.13% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.13% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.10% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.08% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.04% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.03% , Canada Index, EWC
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.01% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.00% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.03% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.05% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.05% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.06% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.09% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.09% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.11% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.11% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.15% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.17% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.22% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.23% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.25% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.29% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.34% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.37% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.43% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.47% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.13% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.28% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1991.39, high of 7/24/2014
1955.33, 50-day SMA
1952.86, low of 7/10/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1862.75, 200-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
