Forex Pros — Last week saw the U.S. dollar edge slightly higher against the yen, finding support after Federal Reserve policymakers said the central bank won’t add to stimulus measures after its second round of quantitative easing ends this month.
USD/JPY hit 80.79 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since June 16; the pair subsequently consolidated at 80.40 by close of trade on Friday, easing up 0.34% over the week.
The pair is likely to find support at 79.99, the low of June 17 and a one-week low and resistance at 81.05, the high of June 16.
On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke confirmed that the bank was winding up its monetary easing program at the end of this month and said further easing was unlikely.
Bernanke also said there was “uncertainty” about how much of the recent U.S. slowdown was permanent or transitory.
The Fed cut its cut its 2011 economic growth forecast for the U.S. to a range of 2.7% to 2.9%, down from a previous estimate of 3.1% to 3.3%. Policymakers also cut their outlook for growth in 2012 and raised estimates for unemployment.
The dollar pared gains against the yen on Thursday, after U.S. data showed that the number of people in the filing for initial jobless benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 429,000 in the week ending June 18, from 414,000 the previous week, confounding expectations for a decline to 410,000.
The greenback turned lower on Friday, as speculation that Greece’s debt crisis would spread to affect the region’s banking system sparked a flight to safety, bolstering demand for the safe haven yen.
In the week ahead, the focus looks likely to remain on Greece, with the Greek parliament due to hold a critical vote on austerity measures on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, a relatively small amount of U.S. data is scheduled for release, with the main highlight looking likely to be Friday’s ISM manufacturing index.
Ahead of the coming week, Forex Pros has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Monday, June 27
The U.S. is to publish government data on personal income and expenditure as well as a consumer price index.
Tuesday, June 28
Japan is to publish official data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish industry data on house price inflation, a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health as well as a report on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending.
Wednesday, June 29
Japan is to publish preliminary data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health.
Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to publish industry data on pending home sales as well as official data on crude oil stockpiles.
Thursday, June 30
The U.S. is to publish its weekly government report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.
Friday, July 1
Japan is to publish government data on household spending as well as official data on consumer price inflation and the unemployment rate. The country is also to publish government data on manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health.
The U.S. is to round up the week with a report by the Institute of Supply Management on manufacturing activity and revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations from the University of Michigan
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