Forex Pros – The week ending February 11 saw the U.S. dollar close higher against the euro for a third week, as initial relief over Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s resignation gave way to concerns over further turmoil in the region and as markets refocused on the euro-zone’s sovereign debt woes.
On Friday, Mubarak bowed to the demands of protesters who occupied central Cairo for almost three weeks, demanding an end to his 30-year rule.
Meanwhile, speculation that Portugal would have to follow Ireland in tapping the European Financial Stability Facility mounted as yields on 10-year Portuguese debt climbed to hit euro lifetime highs.
Sentiment on the single currency was also hit after a German government spokesman said Friday Bundesbank President Axel Weber will leave office on April 30.
The move took Weber, a known policy hawk, out of the race to succeed Jean- Claude Trichet as president of the European Central Bank when Trichet’s term expires in late October, adding to doubts that euro zone rates will rise in the near future.
Elsewhere, U.S. government data showed that initial claims for jobless benefits fell last week to the lowest level since July 2008. They dropped by 36,000, more than forecast, to 383,000, Labor Department figures showed.
Also last week, the pound slipped against the dollar after a rally driven by speculation of a U.K. interest rate rise stalled in the absence of clarity from the central bank on when a hike might occur.
In the week ahead, the U.S. is to publish official data in inflation and retail sales while the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent monetary policy meeting. The U.S. is also to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims.
In the euro zone, Germany is to publish preliminary data on gross domestic product and in the U.K. the Governor of the Bank of England is to speak.
Ahead of the coming week, Forex Pros has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Monday, February 14
New Zealand is to publish official data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. Australia is to release government data on home loans, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market.
Japan is to publish preliminary data on GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health.
Later in the day, the euro zone is to release official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health.
Tuesday, February 15
The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its most recent monetary policy meeting. The data provides in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the committee’s decision on where to set interest rates. Later Tuesday, Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators.
The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate, which will be followed by a press conference to discuss the rate decision. Later in the day, Japan is to publish a report on tertiary industry activity, a leading indicator of economic strength.
In the euro zone, Germany is to publish preliminary data on GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health. The euro zone is also to publish preliminary data on the GDP of the wider 17-nation currency bloc.
Also Tuesday, the ZEW Centre for Economic Research is to publish a report on German economic sentiment.
Meanwhile, the U.K. is to publish official data on consumer price inflation. This is considered the UK’s most important inflation data because it’s used as the central bank’s inflation target.
The U.S. is to publish government data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The nation is also to publish a report on manufacturing activity in the state of New York as well as data on foreign investments in the U.S. and a report on import prices.
Wednesday, February 16
The U.K. is to publish industry data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending. Later in the day, the U.K. is to publish official data on claimant count change as well as the overall unemployment rate, a leading indicator of economic health.
Also Wednesday, the Governor of the BOE, Mervyn King, is to hold a press conference about the Inflation Report, which includes the banks projection for inflation and economic growth over the next two years.
The U.S. is to publish official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation. The nation is also to publish government data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as reports on housing starts and industrial production.
Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent monetary policy committee meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced the vote on where to set interest rates.
In addition, Canada is to publish government repots on manufacturing sales and foreign investments as well as an index of leading economic indicators.
Elsewhere, the BOJ is to publish its monthly report, which contains the statistical data that policymakers looked at when setting the interest rate. Australia is to publish official data on new vehicle sales, a sign of consumer confidence. Meanwhile, New Zealand is to publish official data on producer price inflation input, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
Thursday, February 17
The euro zone is to publish official data on its current account, which is directly linked to currency demand. Elsewhere in Europe, the ZEW Centre for Economic Research is to publish a report on Swiss economic expectations.
In the U.K., BOE monetary policy committee member Andrew Sentence is to speak at a public engagement. His comments will be closely watched for clues to the possible future direction of monetary policy. Later in the day, the U.K. is to publish industry data on industrial order expectations, a leading indicator of economic health.
Also Thursday, the U.S. is to publish its weekly report in initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of economic health. The nation is also to publish official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation and a report in manufacturing activity in the state of Philadelphia.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, is to testify before Congress; his comments will be closely watched as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
In addition, Canada is to publish official data on wholesale sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending, while the BOJ is publish the minutes of its most recent monetary policy meeting. The data provides in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the committee’s decision on where to set interest rates.
Friday, February 18
The euro zone is to publish official data on German producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation. Meanwhile, Canada is to release official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation.
The U.K. is to publish official data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. Later in the day, the Governor of the BOE, Mervyn King, is to speak at a public engagement. His remarks will be closely scrutinized for any hints to the possible future direction of monetary policy.
Also Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to deliver a speech at a public engagement.
ForexPros.com
