Forex Pros — Last week saw the euro post its first weekly gain against the U.S. dollar in four weeks, amid hopes that Greece will avoid a sovereign debt default and ahead of a widely expected interest rate hike by the European Central Bank next week.

The euro rallied after Greece’s parliament approved two bills to authorize a EUR28.4 billion, five-year austerity package needed to secure a EUR12 billion tranche of bailout funds from the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

The euro also found support after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said Tuesday that the bank was in “strong vigilance mode” pointing towards a possible interest rate hike when the bank meets on July 7.

The single currency held gains even as the dollar strengthened on Friday, after the U.S. Institute for Supply Management said its June manufacturing index came in at 55.3, above the 51.5 forecast, marking the 23rd consecutive month of growth.

The Swiss franc weakened against the dollar and the euro as risk appetite recovered. A report showing that the country’s KOF economic barometer fell in June also added to concerns that the franc’s record gains are weighing on economic growth.

Meanwhile, the pound edged higher against the dollar helped by increased risk appetite, but data on Friday showing that manufacturing activity in the U.K. sank to a 21-month low in June reinforced concerns that the country’s economic recovery is faltering.

Earlier in the week, the pound tumbled to a 15-month low against the dollar after the minutes of the Bank of England’s June policy meeting showed that some Monetary Policy Committee members believe fresh quantitative easing may be needed if the economy worsens.

The week ahead holds a full calendar of economic data, with the ECB, the BoE and the Reserve Bank of Australia all set to announce their benchmark interest rates. Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish reports on service sector growth and June non-farm payrolls.

Ahead of the coming week, Forex Pros has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 4

Australia is to publish official data on building approvals, a leading indicator of future construction activity as well as government data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to publish a report on the change in the number of jobs advertised in the previous month.

Switzerland is also to publish official data on retail sales, while later in the day, Swiss National Bank Chairman Philipp Hildebrand is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

The euro zone is to publish official data on producer price inflation as well as a report on investor confidence. Meanwhile, the U.K. is to publish official data on construction sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Also Monday, Canada is to publish government data on raw material price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation, while markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for Independence Day.

Tuesday, July 5

New Zealand is to publish a report on business confidence, a leading indicator of economic health. Elsewhere, Japan is to publish official data on average cash earnings, which is closely linked to consumer spending.

Australia is to publish official data on its trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports over the month. The country is also to publish industry data on service sector growth, an important indicator of economic health.

Later in the day, the RBA is to announce its cash rate. The announcement will be followed by the bank’s rate statement, which contains insights in the economic outlook from the banks point of view.

The euro zone is to release official data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. Meanwhile, the U.K. is to release a report on service sector growth, a leading indicator of economic health.

Also Tuesday, the U.S. is to publish government data on factory orders, a leading indicator of production.

Wednesday, July 6

The euro zone is to publish final data on first quarter gross domestic product, while Germany is to publish official data on factory orders, a leading indicator of production.

Canada is to publish government data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction activity. Meanwhile, the U.S. Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on service sector growth, a leading indicator of economic health. 

Thursday, July 7

New Zealand is to publish official data on first quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health. Japan is to release government data on core machinery orders, a leading indicator of production. Elsewhere, Australia is to publish official data on employment change and the unemployment rate, leading indicators of economic health.

Switzerland is to publish official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation. The U.K. is to release government data on manufacturing and industrial production, while later in the day the BoE is to announce its official cash rate.

Also Thursday, the ECB is to announce its minimum bid rate. The announcement will be followed by a closely watched press conference by the bank’s President Jean-Claude Trichet. Elsewhere, Germany is to publish official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health.

In the U.S., payroll processing firm ADP is to publish a report on non-farm payrolls, which leads government data by one day. The U.S. is also to release a weekly report on initial jobless claims, the nation’s earliest economic data.

Meanwhile, Canada is to publish official data on house price inflation, a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health, as well as the Ivey PMI, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, July 8

The U.K. is to publish official data on producer price inflation input, a leading indicator of consumer inflation. Elsewhere, in the euro zone Germany is to publish official data on its trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports over the month.

Canada is to release official data on employment change and the country’s unemployment rate, both leading indicators of economic health.

The U.S. is to round up the week with government reports on average hourly earnings, a leading indicator of consumer inflation as well as official data on non-farm payrolls and the country’s overall unemployment rate.

Forexpros
Forexpros