Written by Rich B. Meier
TopEquityNews.com
Although Thanksgiving cuts this trading week in two, a lot of big things are on the table.
Big things Number 1:
On Friday, Top Equity news wrote about the teetering technical condition of the stock market. The NASDAQ and S&P managed to close slightly under their lower trend-lines; with the NASDAQ dipping below its 50 day-average. For the present uptrend to continue from its August start, stocks need to get going, and now.
According to our market metrics, the indexes are losing momentum as the NASDAQ falls to hold onto the leadership position. When these two indicators are on the same side of zero, the market tends to move in that direction – in this case, down.
If the week’s events and news give bears courage, the NASDAQ could shave off another 100 points, and the S&P could drop another 60.
Big things Number 2:
New, news, and more big news; tryptophan or not, don’t sleep on reports from the super duper debt commission. If the politicians in D.C. don’t get it right, the credit-rating agencies have already warned of more downgrades to come. Welcome to the A States of America The uncertainty of both could make it difficult for stocks to get their game on.
Big things Number 3:
It’s bad enough to have to swallow our own dysfunction, and now we have to chew on the EU’s debt and recession fears too. We all know about the PIIGS, but now savvy investors fear that France and Germany are being sucked into the black-hole debt vortex. If Germany goes, the EU experiment could go with it. You heard it here first.
Big things Number 4:
Rumor has it that cases of Red Bull are flying off the shelves as shoppers get prepared for Black-Friday deals! Going to need a super dose of pick me up to hit the stores at midnight after downing all that turkey.
TEN sure hope the folks with shopping enthusiasm down a case of that stuff. If the cash registers sing sweet Christmas receipt melodies, it could put some much-needed cheer into investors’ stockings. Now get out there and max out the plastic! (just kidding)
We think for stocks to avoid a technical breakdown, two of big things 2, 3, and 4 need to move in the right direction. The combination of the debt commission striking balance of cuts and revenues totaling at least $1.2 trillion – or the EU announcing a grand plan – along with a kick-ass start to the 2011 shopping season would go a long way towards starting a year-end rally.
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