Yesterday, we drove to France for lunch. I’ve been wanting to write those words since we drove to France for lunch yesterday. Tomorrow, we head back to Barcelona for a night and the next day, I fly to Ireland, for about nine days. There, I will visit the county of Cork, the home of my grandfather’s parents, the genological origin of my Irish parts. I hope the weather is nice …
Last week, I pointed my pen at the predictors, and I suggested to you that if you were solely relying on any of the “experts” to help you find the trade, you could be making a mistake. That is still true, especially as we move into the middle of the year, a time when the market as of late (3 years) wants to be different than what it has been. There is much under the bed, hiding in the closet, and lurking about in the dark after midnight that could scare the market, so don’t be surprised if those who have predicted a down year for the market partially get their way.
In late 2011 The BlackBay Group’s Todd Schoenberger confidently predicted that the stock market would fall 20% by mid-2012 and 35% by the end of the year. History has not been kind to the prediction thus far.
Although this guy so far has missed his prediction, he still clings to his thinking that the market is doomed for 2012. In the interview, he didn’t seem embarrassed about his miss; rather he seemed defiant, as if his agitation and strident voice could make the market go the way he thinks it will go, which is down, down, down. The important thing I took away from the interview is that this guy was all locked up in the emotion of what he thinks he knows. Listening to him, I truly wondered if I would want this guy managing my money and I certainly felt he is not a source for any intelligence I would gather to understand market direction. He should do his job dispassionately, and he should do it quietly. Trumpeting his thinking on TV points to another problem, one every trader/investor should avoid — letting your ego make the play.
China’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to a 13-month high in April.
The PMI report out of China has some problems underneath the headline, but the problems are lessening as China finds its way to a soft landing. I know the market, like a petulant child, wants what it wants when it wants it, but righting a ship the size of China takes time, lots of time, but it appears it is righting. This is important to keep in mind if the data coming out this week points to a softening US economy.
I am trading crude oil and natural gas. How do I trade for a profit?
You don’t. You retire and save your money.
Trade in the day; Invest In Your Life…
