CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/4/12 and remains bearish.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below the lows of the previous 6 trading days on 5/4/12, fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/3/12, and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/2/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 17 months and remains bearish.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 5/4/12, and that looks bearish on the chart.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 5/4/12, reconfirming its bearish trend.
Industrial Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) 50-day SMA fell further below the 200-day SMA and remains bearish.
Materials Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 weeks on 5/4/12 and fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 4/10/12 and remains bearish.
SPDR S&P Capital Markets ETF (KCE) broke down from a Head-and-Shoulders Top chart pattern on 5/4/12. The stocks of broker-dealers and asset managers are leading indicators of the broader market.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,369.10) fell 22.47 points or 1.61% on Friday. SPX broke down below the intraday lows of the previous 7 trading days and closed below its widely-followed, 50-day SMA. SPX fell 2.44% for the week and is down 3.52% from its closing price high of 1,419.04 on 4/2/12.
Popular momentum indicators based on the SPX daily close price have been relatively weak and are trending down bearishly. RSI(14), now at 42.73 and falling steeply, has been relatively bearish since it closed at 75.38 on 2/9/12. Stochastic(14,3,3) fell to 51.07, down from 90.04 on 4/30/12. MACD(12,26,9), now at 1.35, is below its Signal Line and is down from 19.08 on 2/9/12.
SPX has traded in a 4.57% range, between intraday extremes of 1,357.38 and 1,422.38, for 8 weeks, since 3/8/12. The extremes of this range may be considered support and resistance.
With all up trendlines and the 50-day SMA now broken, probabilities appear to favor a break of support and further downside risk.
The Reward to Risk Ratio for the stock market remains unattractive.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Full report available by subscription only (click here).
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.50% , DYN , DYNEGY
2.50% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
2.59% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
4.89% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
3.20% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
3.21% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.24% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
4.51% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
1.48% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
0.76% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.69% , FLR , FLUOR
0.78% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.40% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.32% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
0.16% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.61% , NI , NISOURCE
0.27% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
0.24% , DRI , DARDEN REST
0.27% , TLAB , TELLABS
0.50% , FDX , FEDEX
0.18% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
0.38% , SO , SOUTHERN
0.32% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
1.25% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
0.86% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
0.32% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
0.54% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
0.25% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
0.14% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.03% , SHV , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.13% , MKC , MCCORMICK
0.02% , LLY , ELI LILLY
0.37% , ED , CON ED
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.17% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-1.98% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-2.82% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-9.49% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-3.86% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-11.29% , PWER , POWER ONE
-1.82% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.03% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-1.12% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-5.76% , AON , AON
-4.93% , WPO , Washington Post
-1.80% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-2.31% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-5.35% , EL , Estee Lauder
-1.97% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-1.04% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-2.95% , BMS , BEMIS
-4.03% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-5.83% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-3.97% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-3.92% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-1.54% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-5.49% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-1.07% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.59% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-3.69% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-1.94% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-5.93% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-1.99% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-4.84% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-2.26% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-2.49% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
-4.74% , NBR , NABORS
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.61% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.78% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.76% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.42% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.40% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.32% Spain Index, EWP
0.31% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.22% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.21% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.14% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.11% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.10% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.07% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.03% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.02% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.00% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.03% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.11% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.12% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.20% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.23% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.33% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.41% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.48% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.52% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.62% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.65% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.74% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.76% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.78% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.79% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.84% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.85% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.87% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.88% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.89% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.89% Austria Index, EWO
-0.94% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.98% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.07% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.10% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.10% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.13% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.14% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.16% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.28% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.29% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.30% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.31% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.34% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.36% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.37% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.37% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.39% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.42% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.42% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.44% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.45% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.45% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.47% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.50% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.50% Dividend International, PID
-1.50% Global 100, IOO
-1.51% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.53% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.54% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.55% Water Resources, PHO
-1.56% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.56% Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.58% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.58% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.59% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.59% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.59% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.60% France Index, EWQ
-1.62% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.62% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.63% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.64% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.64% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.64% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.64% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.64% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.65% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.66% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.66% Italy Index, EWI
-1.66% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.67% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.68% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.68% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.69% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.70% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.72% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.72% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.75% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.76% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.76% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.77% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.78% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.79% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.80% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.81% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.81% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.82% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.87% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.90% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.90% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.90% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.91% India PS, PIN
-1.91% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.94% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.95% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.96% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.97% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.97% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.98% Networking, IGN
-2.01% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-2.02% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.06% Canada Index, EWC
-2.08% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-2.09% Technology SPDR, XLK
-2.11% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.14% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.20% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.20% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-2.26% Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.26% Energy DJ, IYE
-2.27% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.29% Energy SPDR, XLE
-2.32% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.38% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-2.39% Sweden Index, EWD
-2.40% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.49% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-2.49% Germany Index, EWG
-2.49% Australia Index, EWA
-2.59% Energy Global, IXC
-3.86% Russia MV, RSX
-3.97% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-4.03% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
