The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/10/10 and so turned bullish. Absolute price of RSP closed above its 200 SMA on 6/10/10 and remains neutral.
The Dow-Jones Transportation Average absolute price rose to close above its 200-day SMA on 6/10/10.
NASDAQ 100 absolute price rose to close above its 200-day SMA on 6/10/10.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 and S&P MidCap 400 stock price indexes closed above 200 SMAs on 6/10/10.
Industrial (XLI) and Consumer Staples (XLP) Stock Sector ETFs absolute prices rose to close above their 200-day SMAs on 6/10/10.
Energy (XLE) Stock Sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/10/10 and so turned neutral.
RSI(14) on the S&P 500 Composite (SPX) rose above 4-week highs, thereby demonstrating positive divergence.
MACD and MACDH both turned bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 22 months on 6/10/10 and remains bearish.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose above 3-week highs on 6/10/10, thereby signaling a short-term uptrend.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.19% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
2.91% , ELG , Growth Large Cap, ELG
2.39% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
11.54% , CR , CRANE
8.57% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
3.05% , PWY , Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
4.35% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
3.18% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
3.32% , DSG , Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
7.24% , PCAR , PACCAR
5.18% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
1.65% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
7.97% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
4.85% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
6.92% , NCR , NCR
4.57% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.69% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
5.54% , HAS , HASBRO
2.71% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
3.60% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
2.02% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
1.93% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
4.18% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
3.49% , PWJ , Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
1.82% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
8.64% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
3.45% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
3.81% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
6.54% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
2.00% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
2.51% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
10.61% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
8.71% , KBH , KB HOME
3.59% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
6.19% , ZEUS , Olympic Steell, ZEUS
3.69% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
6.97% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
2.64% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
7.63% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
3.05% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.43% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-2.21% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
-0.93% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-6.00% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.74% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.46% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-0.48% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-0.41% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-1.33% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-1.26% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-0.28% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-1.79% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.31% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.30% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.03% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
-0.24% , SYK , STRYKER
-0.13% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 5/27/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY remains above its 200-day SMA and May low and remains neutral. Support 30.34. Resistance 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) remains neutral, according to the 50/200 trend-following moving average system. Absolute price of XLI rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/10/10. Support 27.40. Resistance 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) has performed about in-line with the broader market for the past 7-months and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLP rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/10/10. Support 25.78 and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) remains neutral. Absolute price of XLK held above its May low and remains neutral. Support 20.64. Resistance 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) moved above 4-month highs on 6/8/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLU remains bearish, with price below SMAs and the 50 below the 200 SMA. Support 27.44, 25.76. Resistance 30.02, 30.59, 30.91, 31.64 and 32.08.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 3-month lows on 6/7/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLF also remains neutral. Support 13.70 and 13.51. Resistance 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) remains neutral. Absolute price of XLV fell below 6-month lows on 5/25/10 and remains neutral. Support 27.96. Resistance 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/10/10 and so turned neutral. Absolute price of XLE fell below its 8-month lows on 5/25/10 and remains neutral. Support 50.15 Resistance 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 14-month lows on 6/7/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLB fell below 9-month lows on 6/7/10 and remains neutral. Support 28.55. Resistance 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/10/10 and so turned neutral. Absolute price of EEM also is neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 5-year lows on 5/26/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of EFA fell below 10-month lows on 5/25/10 and remains bearish.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio held above its 50-day SMA on 6/8/10 and remains bullish. The RS Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 6/4/10, giving a major bullish signal.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/8/10, turning neutral. Absolute price of the NASDAQ bounced near its May low and remains neutral.
Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) remains neutral. Absolute price of IWD tested and held above its February low and remains neutral.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) rose above 3-month highs on 6/7/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of IWF held above its May low and remains neutral.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/10/10 and so turned bullish. Absolute price of RSP closed above its 200 SMA on 6/10/10 and remains neutral.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 22 months on 6/10/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of OEX remains neutral.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell further below its 50-day SMA on 6/7/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of IWM closed above its 200 SMA on 6/10/10 and remains neutral.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/7/10 and so turned neutral. Absolute price of MDY closed above its 200 SMA on 6/10/10 and remains neutral.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose above 3-week highs on 6/10/10, thereby signaling a short-term uptrend. Support 69.51, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 75.72, 77.74, 78.81, 81.29, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price rose above its all-time high at 1249.7 set on 6/8/10. The main trend remains bullish. Support 1196.9, 1168.0, 1156.2, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: none.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/10/10 and remains neutral.
Silver/Gold Ratio turned bearish on 5/17/10 when it crossed below both 50- and 200-day SMAs, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
Copper nearest futures price broke down to another new 7-month low on 6/7/10. Copper’s downtrend reflects current uncertainties about the global economic prospects. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 2.9005 and 2.811. Resistance 3.187, 3.2675, 3.3225, 3.795 and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price appears to be consolidating gains since setting a 14-month high at 126.05 on 5/2510, which reflected a flight to safety. Support 121.06, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 126.05, 126.15, and 130.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been moving with the stock market and remains neutral.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 6-month lows on 5/20/10 but still remains neutral for the intermediate-term trend. This implies that investors are choosing somewhat less inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP remains bullish.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price broke out to another new high on 6/7/10. USD main trend remains bullish. Support 85.325, 83.07, 81.74, 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 89.71 and 92.53.
The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 38.5% Bulls versus 31.9% Bears as of 6/9/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1.21, down from 1.40 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
VIX Fear Index recently has been stuck in the 30s after rising to a 14-month high of 48.20 on 5/21/10. This might suggest some kind of divergence compared to price indexes, which are nearer their extreme lows of the year. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
VXN Fear Index recently has been stuck in the 30s after rising to a 14-month high of 48.89 on 5/21/10. This might suggest some kind of divergence compared to price indexes, which are nearer their extreme lows of the year. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.
ISEE Call/Put Ratio fell to .059 on 5/7/10, a low level that indicates bearish sentiment. Its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.
CBOE Put/Call Ratio rose to 0.96 on 5/20/10, its highest level of the year. A high level indicates bearish sentiment. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.
The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) recently tested year-to-date extreme intraday lows and held them several times. SPX reached down into deeply oversold territory and previous support. An oversold rally would not be unusual. Support 1040.78, 1029.38, 1019.95, 1012.42, and 1008.55. Resistance 1109.17, 1130.29, 1151.41, 1173.57, 1181.49, 1219.80, 1220.03, and 1228.74.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1181.49, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2010 range
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1151.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1130.29, Gann 50.0% of 2010 range
1109.17, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2010 range
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1040.78, low of 5/25/2010
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
1012.42, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
7.63% Spain Index, EWP
5.80% Italy Index, EWI
5.70% Sweden Index, EWD
5.57% Austria Index, EWO
5.36% France Index, EWQ
5.34% Australia Index, EWA
5.18% European VIPERs, VGK
5.05% EMU Europe Index, EZU
5.02% Energy SPDR, XLE
4.92% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
4.90% Energy DJ, IYE
4.78% Energy VIPERs, VDE
4.71% Energy Global, IXC
4.65% Netherlands Index, EWN
4.63% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
4.63% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
4.62% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
4.60% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
4.57% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
4.47% REIT Wilshire, RWR
4.47% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
4.42% South Africa Index, EZA
4.35% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
4.33% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
4.29% Belgium Index, EWK
4.23% EAFE Index, EFA
4.19% Brazil Index, EWZ
4.19% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
4.18% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
4.18% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
4.15% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
4.13% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
4.11% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
4.03% Germany Index, EWG
4.01% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
3.99% Dividend International, PID
3.92% United Kingdom Index, EWU
3.92% Latin Am 40, ILF
3.92% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
3.86% Industrial SPDR, XLI
3.81% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
3.71% Russia MV, RSX
3.67% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
3.65% India PS, PIN
3.59% Mexico Index, EWW
3.59% Water Resources, PHO
3.59% Materials SPDR, XLB
3.54% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
3.52% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
3.49% Emerging Markets, EEM
3.48% Biotech SPDR, XBI
3.46% Microcap Russell, IWC
3.46% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
3.43% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
3.42% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
3.42% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
3.40% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
3.39% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
3.39% Taiwan Index, EWT
3.37% MidCap Russell, IWR
3.37% Financial DJ US, IYF
3.30% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
3.28% Financial SPDR, XLF
3.26% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
3.25% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
3.25% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
3.24% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
3.23% Financials VIPERs, VFH
3.23% Singapore Index, EWS
3.21% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
3.20% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
3.18% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
3.18% Global 100, IOO
3.17% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
3.16% Financial Services DJ, IYG
3.14% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
3.13% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
3.10% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
3.10% Canada Index, EWC
3.07% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
3.06% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
3.05% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
3.04% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
3.01% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
3.01% Value VIPERs, VTV
3.00% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
2.98% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
2.95% Switzerland Index, EWL
2.95% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
2.94% Growth VIPERs, VUG
2.93% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
2.92% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
2.88% India Earnings WTree, EPI
2.85% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
2.83% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
2.81% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
2.75% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
2.74% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
2.65% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
2.64% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
2.60% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
2.60% Dividend SPDR, SDY
2.59% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
2.57% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.46% Utilities SPDR, XLU
2.45% Technology DJ US, IYW
2.44% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
2.42% Technology SPDR, XLK
2.42% China 25 iS, FXI
2.42% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
2.33% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
2.21% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
2.20% Networking, IGN
2.00% South Korea Index, EWY
1.90% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.72% Japan Index, EWJ
1.71% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.70% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.67% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.59% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.44% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.35% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.02% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.91% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.87% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.69% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.56% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.47% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.40% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.13% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.28% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.30% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.41% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.74% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.93% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.31% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.79% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
