Friday, January 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. T-Bond and T-Note prices and lower gold prices.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Traders, there are many markets today (Friday) that are poised to produce technically bearish weekly low closes, including the U.S. stock indexes. Fridays are arguably the most important trading day of the week.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are steady to weaker in early morning trading today. Bulls are fading and need to show fresh power soon.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but has turned down. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,105.00 and then at 1,100.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,115.70 and then at 1,120.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,098.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,848.00 and then at 1,860.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,835.00 and then at 1,825.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,853.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,275 and then more stops just below support at 10,250. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,330 and then at 10,350. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,382

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in early trading today. Prices hit fresh four-week highs overnight. The stronger U.S. dollar this week is giving bonds and notes a lift. Bulls have gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum recently.March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118 19/32 and then at 118 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 119 1/32 and then at 119 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 25/32

MARCH U.S. T-Bonds

136 23/32–lifetime high
122 21/32–Previous Month’s high
119 17/32–second pivot point resistance
119 2/32–first pivot point resistance
118 27/32–previous day’s high
118 22/32–100-day moving average
118 20/32–previous day’s close
118 13/32–pivot point
117 30/32–first pivot point support
117 25/32–4-day moving average
117 23/32–previous day’s low
117 9/32–second pivot point support
116 26/32–9-day moving average
116 3/32–18-day moving average
114 26/32–previous month’s low
110 3/32–lifetime low

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.01.5 and then at 118.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving verage is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.25.5 and then at 117.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118.10.0

MARCH U.S. T-Notes

123 13/32–lifetime high
119 31/32–previous month’s high
118 13/32–second pivot point resistance
118 4/32–first pivot point resistance
117 30/32–previous day’s high
117 26/32–previous day’s close
117 20/32–pivot point
117 13/32–4-day moving average
117 11/32–first pivot point support
117 5/32–previous day’s low
117 3/32–100-day moving average
116 27/32–second pivot point support
116 27/32–9-day moving average
116 9/32–18-day moving average
114 28/32–previous month’s low
110 29/32–lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The March U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today. The bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 78.64 and then at this week’s high of 79.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 78.22 and then at 78.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 77.99. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

The March Euro is firmer in early electronic trading, on short covering. Bears this week have gained solid downside near-term technical momentum. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4064 and then at this week’s low of 1.4027. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4164 and then at 1.4200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4240. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

GOLD

Gold is lower again in early dealings today. Bulls are fading badly in gold this week. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,110.00 and then at 1,110.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at this week’s low of $1,088.00 and then at $1,080.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,106.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bulls have faded badly recently. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $76.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $76.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $75.62 and then more sell stops just below support at $75.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $77.04. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly weaker in overnight trading. Not much new: Grain market bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Significant to serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted in the grain futures markets recently. Market fundamentals in the grains are deemed near-term bearish.