A number of sovereign CDS are lower today as credit contagion fears are easing. Jobless claims were higher than expected, continuing claims were lower. Both were distorted by the Thanksgiving holiday. The US trade balance showed higher exports and imports, also a wider deficit. All this is symptomatic of a strengthening world economy. The USDA grain supply / demand report was kind of a non event. It was deemed slightly negative for corn, wheat and beans, but beans were likely offset a bit by good exports. There’s a 30 year T bond auction today; results are at Noon central.
Stock Indices roll to March today.
March S&P: Sell day; can rally. 1097.38 is Fib resistance, then 1100. Strength today indicates a Sell Short day tomorrow.
March NASDAQ: Sell day; the recent swing high at 1813.75 is the next rally objective.
March Dow: Sell day; clearing fib resistance at 10307 is bullish.
March T Bonds: Could be a Buy day; yesterday’s low at 118-20 is the reference price. The recent low at 118-15 is important support.
March Yen: Sell short day; 1.1410 is Fib resistance. The first objective is 1.1291.
March Euro FX: Yesterday’s doji and narrow range day (NR4) gives today a breakout setup. Use yesterday’s high and low as breakout entry points.
March British Pound: A doji and breakout setup in the Euro could give Cable a directional move. 1.6274 is a pivot point.
March Canadian Dollar: Sell day; yesterday’s inside day could give a directional move today. It hit trend line resistance at 9543.
Feb Gold: A spike at the close caused an “excess low”, hence the higher price. Buy day setup; watch Tuesday’s low at 1125.30 as the reference price.
March Silver: Also a Buy day; Monday’s low at 17.56 is resistance.
March Copper: Buy day; yesterday’s low at 310.65 is the reference price. Broken Fib support at 314.80 is now resistance.
March Cocoa: Today is an “exit breakout buys” day; the recent swing high at 3424 is the next rally objective. The contract high is 3439.
March Sugar: Buy day rally; 22.83 is Fib resistance.
March Coffee: Buy day; the 20 day EMA has been support (@ 141.29 today).
March Cotton: Rallying after the USDA report; resistance is at the multiple highs around 75.10.
Jan. Crude Oil: Look for a Z day today (buy breaks, sell rallies). The broken low at 72.39 is now resistance; the 9/25 low at 66.10 is the next big downside target. $70 is psychological support.
Jan Heating Oil: Trying to hold the 11/27 low at 1.9103.
Jan. Natural Gas: Buy day; it’s holding Fib support at 4.831. It should be higher with as cold as it is here in Chicago.
Feb. Live Cattle: Look for a Z day today, the broken low at 82.75 is now resistance.
Feb. Lean Hogs: Breakout setup today (ID / NR4). Broken Fib support at 64.51 was the downside breakout point.
Jan. Soybeans: Buy day; there’s double bottom support at 10.21. Resistance is at the old lows 1031.
March Wheat: Buy day; Fib support at 531-7 is the reference price.
March Corn: Buy day; Monday’s low at 382-4 is the reference price.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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