China appears to be looking to tighten things a bit. It’s reported they will cut their loan cap next year, and a PBOC researcher reported that risks are rising from their loose monetary policy, and they will need to tighten credit and money supply growth next year. Some concerns resurfaced about the Japanese economy as the deflator fell for Q3 (more deflation) and the strength in the Yen is worrisome for exporters. So far the fallout from the Greek and Dubai credit problems seem to be contained, but there’s talk of upward pressure on Irish, Greek and Portuguese credit spreads. A Greek official said that Greece won’t default. Last night’s API report was bullish crude; the DOE numbers are out at 9:30 this morning. Markets are correcting some of the recent moves, but I’m not convinced it’s over. There’s likely more position squaring before the end of the year, and the end of the year often sees major turns in markets. (That being said, it’s harder to forecast the farther out you go, so take that with a grain of salt.)
Dec. S&P: A Buy day rally; resistance is 1099.50then 1103.75.
Dec. NASDAQ: Another Buy day rally. It held Fib support at 1769; resistance is 1788.
March T Bonds: Sell Short day; 119-12 is support.
March Yen: Sell Short day signal; there’s Fib resistance at 1.1410. Watch 1.1348 for the SS reference point.
March Euro FX: Rallying on a Buy day; 1.4824 is a rally objective.
March British Pound: Another Buy day rally; holding old low support around 1.6270 is good for the bulls.
Feb Gold: A Buy day rally; holding over the old low at 1135.80 is good for the bulls. Resistance is 1147.80 then 1153.50.
March Silver: Buy day; yesterday’s low at 17.56 is the reference price. Holding over the old low at 17.72 is bullish.
March Copper: Buy day rally; held Fib support at 314.78. 319 is resistance.
March Cocoa: Breakout setup today (ID/NR7); Monday’s high of 3385 is the upside breakout point. Last Friday’s swing high at 3424 is the rally objective.
March Sugar: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day; these often become Buy days. 2245 is a Fib pivot point, and 2266 is first resistance.
March Coffee: It looks like a Buy day as it held Fib support at 143.70 yesterday. 146.25 is resistance, then Friday’s high at 147.90.
March Cotton: Broke trend line support at 74.33 and Fib support at 73.94. Look for more downside today.
Jan Crude Oil: Yesterday held the spike low at 72.39; today is a Buy day. Yesterday was a narrow range day (NR7): with today’s inventory report we could see a directional move.
Jan Soybeans: Will today be the Buy day? Yesterday’s low at 1042-4 is the reference price. On the downside the 1032 area is support.
March Wheat: Buy day; use yesterday’s low of 537-2 as the reference price. 531-7 is a 50% retracement of the fall rally; it’s important support.
March Corn: Yesterday was an ID/NR7 day and a doji; look for a directional move today. Use yesterday’s high (390-4) and low 382-4) as breakout points.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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