IB FX View

Full steam ahead…to nowhere?

Monday August 24, 2009

The tone from Jackson Hole was pretty much as had been expected as global central bankers warned of the bumpy road ahead while claiming that the recession appears to be over. There feels a nagging doubt somewhere though. The car stalled over a year ago and began careening downhill with the handbrake jammed on. Now that the brakes have worn through it feels like the car is moving forward, yet the brake is still engaged. But for today’s trade, we’re seeing an as expected pattern of buying riskier units and selling the dollar.


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The Aussie dollar continues to work on a recovery path of its own against the U.S. dollar. Today it’s pushing up to 84.18 cents as metal prices have come in with a bid.  Raw material demand in addition to perceived demand patterns ahead continues to drive Australia higher. The next target for a rally in the Aussie is 84.75 close to its two-week high.

The Canadian dollar today buys 93.10 cents as the general risk appetite tone pervades. Meanwhile supportive retail sales data showed a 1% rise in Canadian store sales in June, which is five times stronger than was expected. It followed a revision higher in the May reading too.

The British pound is falling victim somewhat to the theory that yield differentials will continue to work against it in the event that more asset purchases push up gilt prices. Today that fear has pared the pound back to $1.6408 against the dollar and 87.25 against a lackluster euro.

The euro is actually weaker against the dollar at $1.4315 in late morning trade despite a boost to June industrial orders across European nations. The 3.1% rise in June was the biggest in 19 months. The fact that the euro is not motoring ahead to start the week is possibly due to this news already having been discounted as has most industrial and manufacturing rebound news over the summer.

Andrew Wilkinson                                                                    

Senior Market Analyst                                                               ibanalyst@interactivebrokers.com       

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