Utilities stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose to a new 8-month high on 8/16/10 and remains bullish: above 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 above the 200.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to a new 10-month high on 8/16/02, confirming a significant bullish trend. Absolute price of EEM remains neutral but appears to be heading toward a bullish SMA crossover in days ahead.
Gold nearest futures contract rose above 6-week highs on 8/16/10, confirming a significant upturn.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price soared to 19-month highs on 8/16/10, again confirming a significant longer-term uptrend.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 15-month lows on 8/16/10 and remains RELATIVELY bearish. This implies that investors are choosing less inflation protection.
Trading volume has been in a clear downtrend since 5/6/10, and seems unlikely to improve much in August, the traditional month for a summer vacation.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) price broke down below 3-week lows on 8/16/10 but held near 1071.07, the Gann 50.0% retracement of June-Aug. 2010 range. SPX appears to be correcting and consolidating gains since the 1219.80 high of 4/26/2010.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.79% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
5.24% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
0.67% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
3.03% , KG , KING PHARM
3.29% , CVG , CONVERGYS
2.56% , EBAY , EBAY
1.24% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
0.30% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
0.55% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
0.55% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
2.57% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
0.55% , PTE , Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
0.98% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
3.24% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
0.26% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
2.43% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
1.86% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
1.37% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
2.17% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
1.64% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
1.47% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.60% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
3.39% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
0.05% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
3.22% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
1.68% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
0.94% , NSM , NATL SEMICONDUCT
1.68% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
2.57% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
0.72% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
1.54% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
0.47% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
1.49% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
0.91% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.15% , TJX , TJX
1.21% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.12% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
0.24% , PWY , Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
2.34% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
0.80% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-8.10% , WPO , Washington Post
-0.50% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-3.51% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-0.35% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-2.45% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
-4.02% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-5.09% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-6.12% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-0.40% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-2.91% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-2.33% , SYY , SYSCO
-0.47% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-1.27% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-4.81% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-0.41% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
-1.28% , IP , INTL PAPER
-0.54% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
-1.24% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
-1.11% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
-2.09% , MI , MARSHAL & ILSLEY
-1.27% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
-0.34% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
-1.14% , TER , TERADYNE
-1.14% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
-1.07% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
-0.90% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-2.37% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
-1.94% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-1.85% , MET , METLIFE
-0.12% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-1.32% , F , FORD MOTOR
-0.81% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
-0.96% , BLL , BALL
-0.91% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
-0.19% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-1.31% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
-1.08% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-0.21% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
-1.11% , FO , FORTUNE BRANDS
-1.50% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Utilities (XLU) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose to a new 8-month high on 8/16/10 and remains bullish: above 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 above the 200. Absolute price of XLU remains neutral but is approaching a SMA bullish crossover (50>200). Support 30.17, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 31.64 and 32.08.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose to a new 2-month high on 8/5/10, after turning bullish on 7/22/10, when it crossed above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 2-month high on 8/9/10. XLI remains slightly above both SMAs (50 and 200). Support 27.74, 26.79 and 26.66. Resistance 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) is between 50- and 200-day SMAs, so XLY/SPY is to neutral. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLY is neutral. Support 29.90, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 33.12, 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09. Absolute price of XLP crossed above the 200-day SMA on 7/22/10
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) turned bullish on 8/11/10 when it crossed above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price of XLP remains neutral, above both 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Support 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose to a new 3-month high on 8/2/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 2-month high on 8/2/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.43 and 27.67. Resistance 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell to a new 2-month low on 8/13/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLK remains bearish, below both SMAs and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 20.01 and 19.51. Resistance 22.62, 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV has been bearish since peaking on 1/20/10. Support 27.49. Resistance 29.38, 29.93, 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Energy (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 7/1/08. Absolute price of XLE turned bearish after peaking on 4/26/10. Support 51.31, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 56.70, 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) turned back to bearish on 8/3/10 as it crossed below both the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price turned bearish again on 8/11/10 when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Support 13.34 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to a new 10-month high on 8/16/02, confirming a significant bullish trend. Absolute price of EEM rose to a new 3-month high on 8/2/02. Price remains neutral, with the 50-day below the 200-day SMA, but appears to be heading toward a bullish crossover in days ahead.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) and absolute price both remain neutral, with the 50-day SMAs below the 200-day SMAs.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 6-month lows on 8/13/10, thereby confirming a significant correction to the downside.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 6/15/10. Longer term, RSP /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 11/19/08.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) appears to be consolidating losses since its low on 6/15/10. Big caps have been out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell to 6-monthlows on 8/13/10, confirming a bearish trend for the intermediate term. This trend has been weakening since peaking on 5/17/10. Longer term, IWM/SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/8/99.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 5/28/10. Longer term, MDY /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/7/99.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract closed lower for the past 5 consecutive trading days. Oil fell below 4-week lows on 8/13/10, confirming a downside correction. Oil remains stuck in a correction/consolidation phase that started after the peak on 5/3/10. Support 74.25, 71.09, 70.93, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract rose above 6-week highs on 8/16/10, confirming a significant upturn. Support 1191.5, 1155.6, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: 1264.8, 1263.7, and 1266.5.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been whipsawing sideways through moving averages in recent months. Best stand aside until a clear trend emerges.
Silver/Gold Ratio has been mostly neutral, consolidating losses since making a low on 2/8/10. Longer term, Silver has underperformed Gold since 4/19/06.
Copper nearest futures contract price consolidated gains short term since peaking at 3.4105 on 8/4/10. Copper remains in a significant uptrend for the intermediate-term. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.3225, 3.795 and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price soared to 19-month highs on 8/16/10, again confirming a significant longer-term uptrend. Support 130.29, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has turned bearish for the intermediate term, heading lower since the peak on 1/8/10. From 3/9/09 to 1/8/10, JNK/LQD was bullish, with the ratio moving upward and Junk outperforming.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 15-month lows on 8/16/10 and remains RELATIVELY bearish. This implies that investors are choosing less inflation protection.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price rose to 3-week highs on 8/13/10, confirming a short-term bounce, or upside correction. Support 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 83.64, 85.36, 86.71, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 41.7% Bulls versus 27.5% Bears as of 8/11/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 1.52, up from 1.17 the previous week. This ratio has been rising since making a low at 0.94 on 7/14/10, which was the lowest since 0.82 on 4/1/09. The ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
The Dow Theory suggests a Minor Ripple to the downside within a Bullish Secondary Wave within a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. Both Averages broke down below 3-week lows on 8/13/10. This suggests nothing more than an insignificant short-term Minor Ripple to the downside. On 8/9/10, both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 3 months, again confirming a Secondary Wave to the upside. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) price broke down below 3-week lows on 8/16/10 but held near 1071.07, the Gann 50.0% retracement of June-Aug. 2010 range. SPX appears to be correcting and consolidating gains since the 1219.80 high of 4/26/2010. Further consolidation seems likely during the vacation month of August.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1040.00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1131.23, high of 6/21/2010
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1071.07, Gann 50.0% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1060.21, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2010 range
1056.87, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.50% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
2.17% Sweden Index, EWD
1.97% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.51% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.47% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.47% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.39% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.37% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
1.28% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.23% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.22% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.21% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.15% Austria Index, EWO
1.12% China 25 iS, FXI
1.10% Bond, Corp, LQD
1.10% Australia Index, EWA
1.02% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.98% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.94% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.93% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.91% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.89% European VIPERs, VGK
0.89% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.88% Russia MV, RSX
0.86% Water Resources, PHO
0.84% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.83% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.83% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.82% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.81% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.81% EAFE Index, EFA
0.80% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.80% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.79% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.74% Japan Index, EWJ
0.74% Mexico Index, EWW
0.74% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.72% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.69% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.66% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.66% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.65% Dividend International, PID
0.65% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.62% South Africa Index, EZA
0.60% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.60% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.59% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.59% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.56% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.49% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.47% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.45% Spain Index, EWP
0.45% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.45% Germany Index, EWG
0.41% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.40% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.39% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.37% France Index, EWQ
0.36% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.36% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.34% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.33% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.33% Singapore Index, EWS
0.33% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.33% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.32% Networking, IGN
0.32% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.30% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.28% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
0.26% Italy Index, EWI
0.25% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.25% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.22% Global 100, IOO
0.19% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.18% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.18% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.17% South Korea Index, EWY
0.16% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.15% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.15% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.15% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.13% Energy DJ, IYE
0.13% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.13% Energy Global, IXC
0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.10% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.10% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.08% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.08% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.07% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.06% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.05% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.05% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.04% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.04% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.04% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.03% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.03% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.00% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.00% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.02% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.02% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.02% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.02% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.03% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.03% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.05% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.05% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.06% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.06% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.07% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.07% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.08% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.08% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.08% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.08% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.09% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.09% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.10% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.11% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.11% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.12% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.12% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.12% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.14% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.16% Canada Index, EWC
-0.17% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.20% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.28% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.28% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.28% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.31% India PS, PIN
-0.31% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.45% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.49% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.52% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.53% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
