By FXEmpire.com
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis April 17, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD is currently 1.5841 having made virtually no moves today.
Credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s says Britain has retained its top-notch AAA rating, adding that it regards the country’s economic outlook as stable. The agency said that it anticipated Britain would see “relatively modest real GDP growth of about 1.6 per cent between 2012 and 2015?. Also the House Price Index came in at 2.9% exceeding last month’s report of 1.6%.
The Sterling was just barely able to balance strength and weakness against the US dollar. The greenback was strong in early trading, but after a positive retail sales report it seems investor moved to a bit more risk.
The worries about Spain kept the markets on edge, but it was an even event for the pound and the dollar today. The pair moved between 1.5820 and 1.5860 and ended the European session directly in the middle of the range.
In the US today retail spending in the U.S. rose sharply for the third straight month, up 0.8% in March, as consumers continued to splurge on a wide range of goods and services. The Empire State index for April dropped markedly to a reading of 6.56 from 20.21 in March. Economists had anticipated a reading of 18.0.
Home-builder sentiment dropped in April for the first time in seven months, as growing traffic at new-build sites hasn’t yet led to sales. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index dropped 3 points.
Business inventories rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in February to $1.58 trillion, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Economists had forecast a 0.5% gain. The increase was led once again by the auto sector.
Economic Reports for April 16, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
GBP |
Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) |
2.9% |
1.6% |
|
|
JPY |
BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks |
|||
|
CHF |
PPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.8% |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
Foreign Securities Purchases |
12.50B |
7.23B |
-4.28B |
|
|
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.8% |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
USD |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
6.6 |
18.0 |
20.2 |
|
USD |
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions |
10.1B |
41.3B |
102.4B |
Economic Events scheduled for April 17, 2012 that affect the European and American Markets
09:30 GBP CPI (YoY) 3.4%
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
10:00 EUR CPI (YoY) 2.6% 2.6%
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
10:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 19.0 22.3
The German Zentrum f?r Europ?ische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment Index gauges the six-month economic outlook. A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts.
10:00 EUR Core CPI (YoY) 1.5%
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. The data has a relatively mild impact because overall CPI is the European Central Bank’s mandated inflation target.
13:30 USD Building Permits 0.71M 0.71M
Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.
13:30 USD Housing Starts 0.70M 0.70M
Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector.
14:15 USD Industrial Production (MoM) 0.5%
Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Apr 17 08:30 Spain 12 & 18M T-bill auction
Apr 17 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills
Apr 18 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Apr 18 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz
Apr 18 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 25
Apr 19 08:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Apr 19 08:50 France BTAN auction
Apr 19 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029
Apr 19 09:50 France OATi auction
Originally posted here
