By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD has been remarkably resilient. Traders do not seem bothered by the continued flow of negative eco data. Today, PPI monthly and yearly came in well below forecast. Yesterday the trade balance showed a widening before economist projections but the GBP remains in the 1.56 range.
UK data released since the awful -0.7% GDP number came out on July 25 implies that upward revisions to GDP are fairly likely. For instance, UK monthly construction data for June released overnight showed a smaller contraction during Q2 than was implied by the initial GDP data. The revised outcome of -3.9% q/q compares to -5.2% q/q in the preliminary GDP release.
Combined with the industrial production data released earlier in the week which showed a similar outcome, it seem the Office of National Statistics aimed a bit too low on 2 out of the 3 main inputs which together accounting for just over 20% of the overall weight in GDP. Revised GDP numbers will be released August 24.
In my view, this is all hogwash, the UK is crumbling in all aspects and the only thing keeping the GBP afloat is the hopes that Governor King will cave in and lower rates and add stimulus.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Chinese Economic Data August 9 -10, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
1.8% |
1.7% |
2.2% |
|
CNY |
Chinese PPI (YoY) |
-2.9% |
-2.5% |
-2.1% |
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
-0.1% |
-0.6% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) |
20.4% |
20.5% |
20.4% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) |
9.2% |
9.8% |
9.5% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) |
13.1% |
13.7% |
13.7% |
Economic Data for August 10, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Aug. 10 |
AUD |
RBA Monetary Policy Statement |
|||
|
CNY |
Chinese Trade Balance |
25.10B |
35.10B |
31.70B |
|
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.4% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
JPY |
BoJ Monthly Report |
||||
|
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
|
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
1.7% |
1.7% |
1.7% |
|
|
GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) |
1.3% |
1.5% |
-2.9% |
|
|
GBP |
PPI Input (YoY) |
-2.4% |
-1.5% |
-3.0% |
|
|
Employment Change |
-30.4K |
9.0K |
7.3K |
||
|
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
-0.6% |
0.1% |
-2.4% |
|
|
CAD |
Unemployment Rate |
7.3% |
7.0% |
7.2% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Aug 14 |
1:30 |
AUD |
-3 |
|
|
1:30 |
AUD |
-0.6% |
||
|
5:30 |
EUR |
0.0% |
||
|
6:00 |
EUR |
0.5% |
||
|
6:45 |
EUR |
0.1% |
||
|
7:15 |
CHF |
-0.3% |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
-19.6 |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
0.0% |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
0.6% |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
-22.3 |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-0.4% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-0.5% |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
0.3% |
||
|
Aug 15 |
0:30 |
AUD |
3.7% |
|
|
1:30 |
AUD |
0.9% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
7.4 |
||
|
13:00 |
USD |
55.0B |
||
|
13:15 |
USD |
78.9% |
||
|
13:15 |
USD |
0.4% |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
-3.7M |
||
|
Aug 16 |
1:00 |
AUD |
3.3% |
|
|
9:00 |
CHF |
-42.5 |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
2.4% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.76M |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
361K |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.76M |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
-12.9 |
||
|
Aug 17 |
6:00 |
EUR |
-0.4% |
|
|
8:00 |
EUR |
10.9B |
||
|
13:55 |
USD |
72.3 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 13 09:10 Italy
Aug 13 09:10 Norway
Aug 13 09:30 Germany
Aug 14 09:10 Greece
Aug 14 09:10 Italy
Aug 14 09:30 Belgium
Aug 14 14:30 UK
Aug 15 09:10 Sweden
Aug 16 09:30 UK
Aug 16 15:00 US
Click here to read GBP/USD Technical Analysis.
Originally posted here
