By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.5599 in a surprising day, traders had expected the sterling to tumble today, it was exhibiting bearish signs since last week. With the weakness in the USD the pound was able to climb. The GBP was down almost 3% earlier today. There plenty of reason for GBP to trade on fundamentals, as markets receives CPI (Tuesday), BoE minutes and employment data (Wednesday), retail sales (Thursday) and public sector borrowing (Friday). The CPI data and BoE minutes are key to the outlook for monetary policy, as inflation remains contained in an environment of stagnant growth, with policymakers seeking to promote economic activity via new, recently announced measures of quantitative easing.

The UK economy has been suspect and needs a round of supportive eco data to show recovery and not just odd and end blips. This will be the make it or break it week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data Releases for Monday, July 16, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jul. 16

GBP

Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

-1.7%

1.0%

EUR

CPI (YoY)

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

EUR

Core CPI (YoY)

1.6%

1.6%

1.6%

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM)

-0.4%

0.1%

-0.4%

CAD

Foreign Securities Purchases

26.11B

13.50B

10.16B

USD

Retail Sales (MoM)

-0.5%

0.2%

-0.2%

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

7.4

4.0

2.3

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Previous

Jul 17

8:30

GBP

CPI y/y

2.8%

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

-16.9

9:15

ALL

G7 Meetings

12:30

USD

CPI m/m

-0.3%

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

25.6B

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

-0.1%

Jul 18

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

8.1K

8:30

GBP

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

-43.4

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.78M

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.71M

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-4.7M

Jul 19

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

2.48B

8:00

EUR

Current Account

4.6B

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

1.4%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.55M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-16.6

Jul 20

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

-0.3%

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

15.6B

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Jul 17 08:30 Spain Eur 2.5-3.5bn Jul 2013 (12M) & Dec 2013 (18M) T-bills

Jul 17 09:10 Greece Eur 1.25bn Oct 2012 (3M) T-bills

Jul 17 09:30 Belg Up to Eur 3.0bn Oct 2012 (3M) & Jul 2013 (12M) T-bills

Jul 17 10:00 EFSF Up to Eur 1.5bn Jan 2013 (6M) T-bills

Jul 18 09:30 Ger Eur 5.0bn 0.00% Jun 2014 Schatz

Jul 18 09:30 Port Eur 1.75-2.0bn new Jan 2013 (6M) & new Jul 2013 (12M)

Jul 19 00:30 Japan Auctions 5Y JGBs

Jul 19 08:30 Spain Eur 2.0-3.0bn 3.3% Oct 2014 Bono, 5.5% Jul 2017 &

Jul 19 08:50 France Eur 8.0-9.0bn 2.5% Jan 2015, 2.5% Jul 2016 & new 1.0%

Jul 19 09:30 UK GBP 1.75bn 3.75% Jul 2052 Gilt

Jul 19 09:50 France Eur 1.0-1.5bn 1.3% Jul 2019 OATi,

Jul 19 17:00 US USD 15.0bn 10Y Tips

Click here for updated GBP/USD News.

Originally posted here