By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD fell today, dipping to 1.5653. In the UK retail sales climbed, but the strength of the USD built momentum and the pound was unable to trade up. In the US today, unemployment data once again disappointed at reports showed a gain in unemployment new and continuing claims.
UK retail sales picked up in May, expanding 1.4% m/m after falling by 2.4% in April. Sales ex-auto fuel were up by 0.9% m/m. Auto fuel sales were up solidly and clothing sales were up by 3.5%. Scotia’s UK economics team notes that there were 60% more sunshine hours in May than in April (and 10% more than the seasonal norm) and it was also a bit warmer, boosting a variety of sales components. They think that the general trend in consumer spending should also improve during H2 2012 as the burden from high non-discretionary spending prices (i.e. food and energy prices) continues to ease, making more room for faster discretionary spending.
The narrow defeat of the dovish members by those wishing to maintain policy suggests that an increase in QE will be announced at the coming meeting on July 5th. A major impediment to action had been the uncertainty surrounding the Greek election, and the elimination of that risk paves the way for action
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data Releases for June 21, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun. 21 |
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
48.10 |
48.40 |
|
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
45.3 |
44.5 |
44.7 |
|
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
44.7 |
45.2 |
45.2 |
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
44.8 |
44.9 |
45.1 |
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
1.4% |
1.2% |
-2.4% |
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
2.4% |
2.0% |
-1.1% |
|
|
GBP |
CBI Industrial Trends Orders |
-11 |
-20 |
-17 |
|
|
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.3% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
||
|
CAD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.5% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
387K |
380K |
389K |
|
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3299K |
3275K |
3299K |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 22 |
8:00 |
EUR |
106.9 |
||
|
All Day |
EUR |
||||
|
13:00 |
EUR |
-11.2 |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 22 15:30 Italy
Jun 25 09:10 Norway
Jun 25 09:30 Germany
Jun 25 10:00 Belgium
Jun 25 15:30 Italy
Jun 26 00:30 Japan
Click here a current GBP/USD Chart.
Originally posted here
