By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD is down, trading at 1.5584 as the USD has gained strength in today’s session. Sterling was stronger, up 0.2% vs the USD despite dovish comments from (usually hawkish, see middle chart) MPC member Weale. Although Weale did not vote for more easing at the most recent meeting, his comments suggest an increasing likelihood of additional QE.
Of the nine members of the MPC, only four voted for additional asset purchases, leaving policy unchanged. Weale’s comments about inflation being ‘much less’ of a risk and ‘that there is appreciably more room for further monetary stimulus’ suggest that the next vote will find a majority in favor of further easing.
China is on holiday, while there was only a minor reaction to Moody’s significant downgrades of banks with global capital markets exposure after the market had digested the rumors of it all day. German IFO was mixed, but highlights a business climate that is fading. There have not been any major headlines from the ECOFIN meetings, while this weekend the BIS will host its global central banking meetings. There is no US data today; likely allowing markets a day of rest.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data for June 22, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate Index |
105.3 |
105.9 |
106.9 |
|
|
EUR |
German Current Assessment |
113.9 |
112.3 |
113.2 |
|
|
EUR |
German Business Expectations |
97.3 |
99.8 |
100.8 |
|
|
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
||
|
CAD |
CPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
|
CAD |
CPI (YoY) |
1.2% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jun 25 |
6:00 |
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
5.7 |
|
25th-30th |
GBP |
Nationwide HPI m/m |
0.3% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales |
343K |
|
|
Jun 26 |
8:30 |
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
-18.8B |
|
13:00 |
USD |
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y |
-2.6% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
64.9 |
|
|
Jun 27 |
All Day |
EUR |
German Prelim CPI m/m |
-0.2% |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
32.4K |
|
|
10:00 |
GBP |
CBI Realized Sales |
21 |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Durable Goods Orders m/m |
0.2% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Pending Home Sales m/m |
-5.5% |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
|
Jun 28 |
7:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
0K |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Current Account |
-8.5B |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
BOE Credit Conditions Survey |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Final GDP q/q |
-0.3% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Final GDP q/q |
1.9% |
|
|
23:01 |
GBP |
GfK Consumer Confidence |
-29 |
|
|
Jun 29 |
29th-4th |
EUR |
German Retail Sales m/m |
0.6% |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
French Consumer Spending m/m |
0.6% |
|
|
7:00 |
CHF |
KOF Economic Barometer |
0.81 |
|
|
8:00 |
EUR |
M3 Money Supply y/y |
2.5% |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
CPI Flash Estimate y/y |
2.4% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index m/m |
0.1% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Personal Spending m/m |
0.3% |
|
|
13:45 |
USD |
Chicago PMI |
52.7 |
|
|
13:55 |
USD |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
74.1 |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 25 09:10 Norway
Jun 25 09:30 Germany
Jun 25 10:00 Belgium
Jun 25 15:30 Italy
Jun 26 00:30 Japan
Jun 26 08:30 Holland
Jun 26 08:30 Spain
Jun 26 09:10 Italy
Jun 26 09:30 UK
Jun 26 14:30 UK
Jun 26 17:00 US
Jun 27 09:10 Italy
Jun 27 09:10 Sweden
Jun 27 17:00 US
Jun 28 09:10 Italy
Jun 28 17:00 US
Click here a current GBP/USD Chart.
Originally posted here
