By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD fell in today’s session as the GBP was barraged with negative eco data. The pair dropped to trade at 1.5712. Yesterday the IMF commented on the status of the UK economy and urged the BoE to consider drastic measures to stimulate growth. Today, retail sales reported well under forecast and as CBI Industrial Trends.
Minutes from the BoE’s May meeting indicated that there is not very much support for further QE, with the MPC voting 8-1 against amendments to the current program. Note that while the Bank didn’t physically deliver further unconventional policy ease at the May meeting, some aspects of the minutes and inflation projections are helping to keep policy conditions loose by teasing the market with the prospect of further action. Barring a disaster in Europe, however, it is unlikely that unconventional monetary policy measures will be taken because inflation is likely to continue to disappoint on the upside. Weak UK retail sales for April (-2.3% m/m with auto fuel, -1% ex-auto fuel) will continue to keep this possibility on the market’s mind.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data for May 23, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
May 23 |
JPY |
Trade Balance |
-0.48T |
-0.60T |
-0.62T |
|
JPY |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.10% |
0.10% |
0.10% |
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-2.3% |
-0.8% |
2.0% |
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
-1.1% |
1.0% |
3.1% |
|
|
EUR |
Industrial New Orders (MoM) |
1.8% |
-0.1% |
-1.2% |
|
|
GBP |
CBI Industrial Trends Orders |
-17 |
-10 |
-8 |
|
|
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.1% |
1.0% |
0.4% |
||
|
CAD |
Leading Indicators (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
CAD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.4% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
New Home Sales |
343K |
335K |
332K |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
May 24 |
6:00 |
CHF |
1.69B |
|
|
7:00 |
EUR |
46.9 |
||
|
7:00 |
EUR |
45.2 |
||
|
7:30 |
EUR |
46.2 |
||
|
7:30 |
EUR |
52.2 |
||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
109.9 |
||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
45.9 |
||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
46.9 |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
1.8% |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
-0.2% |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
31.9K |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
-3.3% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-4.0% |
||
|
13:00 |
EUR |
-10.7 |
||
|
May 25 |
6:00 |
EUR |
5.6 |
|
|
7:15 |
CHF |
4.04M |
||
|
TBD |
ALL |
|||
|
13:55 |
USD |
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Date Time Country
May 24 15:30 Italy
May 24 17:00 US
May 25 15:30 Italy
Click here a current GBP/USD Chart.
Originally posted here
