By FX Empire.com
Economic Events
Jan. 30 13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM)
Tent EUR German CPI (MoM)
13:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM)
Jan. 31 07:45 EUR French Consumer Spending (MoM)
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change
10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate
13:30 USD Employment Cost Index (QoQ)
14:45 USD Chicago PMI
15:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence
Feb. 01 08:30 CHF SVME PMI
09:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI
09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI
10:00 EUR CPI (YoY)
13:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Index
Feb. 02 13:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
Feb. 03 09:30 GBP Services PMI
10:00 EUR Retail Sales (MoM)
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
13:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate
13:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis Jan. 30- Feb. 3, 2012, Forecast
Historical:
Highest: 1.681 USD on 17 Nov 2009.
Average: 1.5807 USD over this period.
Rule:
GBP/USD: While the ranges are wider (and so should stops be), the lines are rather distinctive, especially towards the borders of the long term wide range. This pair makes for good trades, with the new austerity program implemented in the UK, the GBP is moving more on Fundamentals now.
Characteristics
Average broker spread: 4-5 pips
Daily range average: 150-200 pips
Best time to trade: Euro Session (0700 GMT – 1700 GMT)
Some factors affecting the GBP/USD rate:
- The interest rate differential between the Bank of England(BoE) and the Federal Reserve
- High yield and attractive growth in the UK drives GBP/USD higher
Trading the GBP/USD
Trading Experience: Expert currency traders
Trading Style: Day trading and Swing trades
How to trade?
Applying Technical Analysis and/or Analyzing Fundamental News from the UK and US zone to make GBP/USD trading decisions. Watch out for false break outs. Surprising economic news releases can make the GBP/USD move a lot in one direction without much retracement.
Analysis and Recommendation:
The GBP/EUR closed the week at 1.5728 +0.0038 (+0.24%)
The pound moved in tandem to the USD this week. The greenback lost against all trading partners based on the FOMC promise to keep interest rates low through 2014.
U.K. data showed that retail sales volume dropped to the lowest level since March 2009, with retailers expecting additional weakness in February.
Around the world this week:
Italian and Spanish bond yields continue lower, 10 yr in Italy below 6%, Spain’s below 5%
German IFO business confidence rises to 8 month high German consumer confidence at best since April
Euro zone manufacturing and services composite index unexpectedly moves back above 50, led by Germany
US Durable Goods orders in Dec surprise to upside but how much was pulled forward from 2012 due to 12/31 expiration of full depreciation expensing?
Jan US confidence rises to best since Feb ’11
Richmond and KC manufacturing survey’s both rise
Bank of Thailand cuts rates, Reserve Bank of India cuts reserve requirements
Greek Creditors announce agreement, deal to be finalized beginning of the week
Portuguese yields spike, 5 yr CDS up 150 bps on week to new high and CDS insurance skyrockets
Spanish unemployment for Q4 rises to 22.9%
Italian consumer confidence holds at lowest since at least ’96 when survey began
Q4 US GDP rises 2.8%, a touch below expectations but nominal GDP gains just 3.2%, the weakest since Q3 ’09. If deflator was in line with expectations, Real GDP would have been up just 1.3%. Real final sales up just .8% vs. 3.2% in Q3
Initial Jobless Claims normalize at 377k after holiday distorted 356k last week
Inflation expectations within UoM rise to 3.3%, the most since Sept and remains above the 20 yr avg of 3.0%. Expectations also rise to multi month highs in TIPS market
New Home Sales remain weak, prices fall 12.8% y/o/y
FOMC stretches out zero rates until late 2014, US$ resumes downward trend against everything. Fed destroying the price mechanism as if interest rates are artificially priced, what are assets really worth? If we don’t know what assets are really worth, how can capital be efficiently allocated?
Japan’s economy would have boomed over the past 10 yrs.
Fitch rating service downgrades, Belgium, Cyprus, Italy, Slovenia and Spain
Upcoming Sovereign Bond Sales Dates:
Jan 30 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Jan 30 10:10 Norway Nok 4.0bn 5.0% May 2015 bond
Jan 30 11:00 Belgium OLO Auction
Jan 30 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on Feb 06
Jan 31 10:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills
Jan 31 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 07
Feb 01 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Feb 01 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund
Feb 01 10:30 Portugal Eur 0.75-1.0bn 3M T-bill
Feb 01 10.30 UK Auctions 5.0% 2025 conventional Gilt
Feb 01 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond auction on Feb 08
Feb 01 16:00 US
Announces details of 3Y Notes on Feb 07, 10Y Notes on Feb
08 & 30Y Bonds on Feb 09
Feb 02 09:50 France OAT Auction
Feb 02 10.30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2029 I/L Gil
Originally posted here
