By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: While the ranges are wider (and so should stops be), the lines are rather distinctive, especially towards the borders of the long term wide range. This pair makes for good trades, with the new austerity program implemented in the UK, the GBP is moving more on Fundamentals now.
- The interest rate differential between the Bank of England(BoE) and the Federal Reserve
- High yield and attractive growth in the UK drives GBP/USD higher
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The GBP/USD closed the quarter much higher than expected at 1.5703 as markets turned upside down on Friday, as EU Minister’s surprised traders by introducing a complete ready to act plan to secure the finances of its members. The new banking plan was unexpected and pushed the euro to a rise of 2 cents within minutes. The dollar immediately declined, and investors shifted to more risk, relieved that there was no a credible solution to dealing with the EU mounting debt problems.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Change % |
||
|
Jun 29, 2012 |
1.5703 |
1.5518 |
1.5715 |
1.5514 |
1.19% |
|
Jun 28, 2012 |
1.5518 |
1.5569 |
1.5624 |
1.5486 |
-0.33% |
|
Jun 27, 2012 |
1.5570 |
1.5634 |
1.5641 |
1.5546 |
-0.41% |
|
Jun 26, 2012 |
1.5634 |
1.5565 |
1.5651 |
1.5564 |
0.44% |
|
Jun 25, 2012 |
1.5565 |
1.5581 |
1.5591 |
1.5539 |
-0.11% |
The dollar index fell below 82.00 and most of the greenbacks trading partners benefited immediately. Global markets soared. With commodities skyrocketing, Gold climbed close to 50.00 and crude oil added 7%.
This week brings us some interesting items; the US will be looking at ISM Manufacturing and the Non Farms Payroll report, while the UK eagerly awaits the BoE meeting. This prior week most eco data was ignored by the markets as the EU Summit and Spain and Italy were center stage. Market focus will now return to eco data and Greece.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthlyanalysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weeklyreports and we providedailyupdates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of June 25 – 29 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB and the Franc
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 26 |
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
5.8 |
5.7 |
5.7 |
|
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
15.6B |
13.6B |
-19.9B |
|
|
Jun 27 |
EUR |
German Prelim CPI m/m |
-0.1% |
0.0% |
-0.2% |
|
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
30.2K |
32.8K |
32.1K |
|
|
GBP |
CBI Realized Sales |
42 |
12 |
21 |
|
|
Jun 28 |
GBP |
Nationwide HPI m/m |
-0.6% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
|
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
7K |
4K |
1K |
|
|
GBP |
Current Account |
-11.2B |
-8.9B |
-7.2B |
|
|
GBP |
Final GDP q/q |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
Final GDP q/q |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
GfK Consumer Confidence |
-29 |
-30 |
-29 |
|
|
EUR |
German Retail Sales m/m |
-0.3% |
0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
|
Jun 29 |
EUR |
French Consumer Spending m/m |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.7% |
|
CHF |
KOF Economic Barometer |
1.16 |
0.87 |
0.80 |
|
|
EUR |
M3 Money Supply y/y |
2.9% |
2.4% |
2.5% |
|
|
EUR |
CPI Flash Estimate y/y |
2.4% |
2.4% |
2.4% |
Historical:
Highest: 1.681 USD on Nov17, 2009.
Average: 1.5807 USD over this period
Lowest: 1.3506 USD on Jan 23, 2009.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 2 |
3:15am |
CHF |
Retail Sales y/y |
0.9% |
0.1% |
|
3:30am |
CHF |
SVME PMI |
44.6 |
45.4 |
|
|
3:45am |
EUR |
Italian Manufacturing PMI |
44.6 |
44.8 |
|
|
4:30am |
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
46.7 |
45.9 |
|
|
5:00am |
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
11.1% |
11.0% |
|
|
10:00am |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
52.1 |
53.5 |
|
|
Jul 3 |
3rd-6th |
GBP |
Halifax HPI m/m |
-0.3% |
0.5% |
|
4:30am |
GBP |
Construction PMI |
53.1 |
54.4 |
|
|
4:30am |
GBP |
Net Lending to Individuals m/m |
1.1B |
1.4B |
|
|
10:00am |
USD |
Factory Orders m/m |
0.1% |
-0.6% |
|
|
Jul 4 Jul 5 |
4:00am |
EUR |
Final Services PMI |
46.8 |
46.8 |
|
4:30am |
GBP |
Services PMI |
53.0 |
53.3 |
|
|
5:00am |
EUR |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.2% |
-1.0% |
|
|
6:00am |
EUR |
German Factory Orders m/m |
0.2% |
-1.9% |
|
|
7:00am |
GBP |
Official Bank Rate |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
7:45am |
EUR |
Minimum Bid Rate |
0.75% |
1.00% |
|
|
8:15am |
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
101K |
133K |
|
|
8:30am |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
385K |
386K |
|
|
10:00am |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
53.1 |
53.7 |
|
|
11:00am |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-0.1M |
||
|
Jul 6 |
3:00am |
CHF |
Foreign Currency Reserves |
303.8B |
|
|
3:15am |
CHF |
CPI m/m |
-0.3% |
0.0% |
|
|
4:30am |
GBP |
PPI Input m/m |
-2.1% |
-2.5% |
|
|
6:00am |
EUR |
German Industrial Production m/m |
0.3% |
-2.2% |
|
|
8:30am |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
92K |
69K |
|
|
8:30am |
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
8.2% |
Click here a current GBP/USD Chart.
Originally posted here
