GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis March 12-16, 2012, Forecast

By FX Empire.com

Rule: While the ranges are wider (and so should stops be), the lines are rather distinctive, especially towards the borders of the long term wide range. This pair makes for good trades, with the new austerity program implemented in the UK, the GBP is moving more on Fundamentals now.

• The interest rate differential between the Bank of England(BoE) and the Federal Reserve
• High yield and attractive growth in the UK drives GBP/USD higher

Analysis and Recommendation:

The GBP/USD had a rough week; it reached a high early in the week of 1.5876 but towards the end of the week, lost energy and fell as low as 1.5662. The pair is trading now at 1.5674 off the bottom. The UK economy is starting to show some recovery and their debt is dropping nicely. This week the Sterling was just fighting a losing battle against the USD. The greenback surged at the end of the week as investors were less stressed over Europe and were able to rally on the US jobs report and push the dollar straight up. The pair will find support and resistance at 1.5656 and 1.5692. There should not be much in the way or news or fundamentals to drive the duo til late in the week

Highlights of the past week

USA

The U.S. created 227,000 jobs in February and more people found work in the prior two months than previously reported, suggesting the economy’s recent momentum is likely to continue.

The unemployment rate, meanwhile, was unchanged at 8.3% as nearly half-a-million workers reentered the labor force in search of job, the Labor Department.

Household debt edged up 0.3% in the fourth quarter, the Fed reported in its flow-of-funds report, as consumer credit surged at a 7% annualized rate. Household debt had declined for 13 consecutive periods before the slender fourth-quarter advance.

The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in January, driven higher by record imports of autos, capital goods and food, government data reported. The trade gap expanded 4.3% in January to $52.6 billion from $50.4 billion in December.

The Fed is considering a new form of “sterilized” quantitative easing that would allow asset purchases despite high oil prices, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. Under the new approach, the Fed would print new money to buy long-term mortgage or Treasury bonds but effectively tie up that money by borrowing it back for short periods at low rates. The aim of such an approach would be to relieve anxieties that money printing could fuel inflation later, a fear widely expressed by critics of the Fed’s previous efforts to aid the recovery.

The Canadian Central Bank held rates today at 1% following the lead of banks around the world.

The Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 57.3 in February from a reading of 56.8 the previous month. Economists had expected the index to decline to 56.1.

Another report showed that U.S. factory orders fell, but at a slower than forecast rate in January, declining by a seasonally adjusted 1.0%, compared to forecasts for a 1.3% slide.

Europe

The International Swaps and Derivatives Association said Friday that the Greek government’s use of collective-action clauses, or CACs, to amend to terms of Greece-issued bonds qualifies as a “credit event” for Greece. A credit event requires a payout to those who held credit default swaps as insurance to protect them in the event of a Greek default.

The Fitch ratings agency downgraded Greece to “restricted default” over the bond swap — a move that had been expected. Fitch was the third agency to downgrade Greece into default, after Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.

The deal is done, finally. Greece finished their debt swap with private creditors. Bondholders representing some 85% of Greece’s outstanding private-sector debt, well above the government’s minimum threshold, have agreed to the swap, easing pressures on the eurozone.

Conditions are in place for Greece to get its second bailout, said Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker in a statement released Friday. “I welcome the significant progress achieved in the preparation of the second Greek adjustment program,” said Juncker, after a teleconference between euro-zone finance ministers on Friday

The Bank of England announced their current rate decision which was as expected to hold rates. No new additions to their monetary easing policies announced in February.

The European Central Bank committee held lending rates at the current rate of 1% and made no comments on any additional lending policies.

Prices for Italian government bonds jumped and Spanish bonds also rose Thursday, sending yields lower on expectations Greece will successfully complete its voluntary debt swap with private investors. Italy’s 10-year bond yield fell 0.20

German production climbed 1.6% from December. Economists were expecting an increase of 1.1% in the euro zone’s largest economy.

In the UK, house prices fell by 0.5% in February from January and were down 1.9% in the three months to February from the same period a year ago, according to the Halifax House Price Index. Prices were down 1.1% in the latest three months to February from the previous 3-month period.

EU’s Rehn: Eurozone Currently in a Mild Recession but Signs of Improvement but, risk of credit crunch in European economy has been prevented largely due to long-term liquidity offer of ECB. The Commission supports combining remaining resources of EFSF with ESM to make sturdier European firewall.

UK services sector saw growth slow in February after the surge in January, the CIPS/Markit index shows. The headline service sector CIPS/Markit index fell to 53.8 in February from an unrevised 56.0 in January, well below analysts’ median forecast for a 55.0 outturn. The detail, however, was more encouraging showing a rise in business expectations and easing inflation pressure.

Business expectations rose to their highest level for a year while output charges declined. Markit said sales were supported by discounting, with margins squeezed as input cost continued to rise.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy on Friday announced a new deficit to gross domestic product target for the country of 5.8% in 2012, against a prior target of 4.4%, according to media reports. Rajoy made the comments in Brussels. Spanish media has been reporting for days that the government would raise its target.

Historical:

Highest: 1.681 USD on 17 Nov 2009.

Average: 1.5807 USD over this period

The week ahead brings a vast assortment of economic indicators. A busy week with the news dominated by the US interest rate decision and inflation data.

Monday sees data on credit card lending and debt released by the RBA in Australia.

Also we have housing finance data and new car sales figures will be released. As well as the Reserve Bank of Australia will release its March quarter bulletin.

The Bank of Japan will make its interest rate decision for March.

In Europe, European Union finance ministers are scheduled to meet.

Mondaysees the United Nations economic and social council hold its annual spring meeting

The US treasury budget data will be released.

On Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release housing finance data for January. National Australia Bank is due to release its business confidence and conditions index for the month of February.

IN the US, the Federal Reserve hold its March meeting, where it will decide on the current level of interest rates in the country. Also January business inventories and February retail sales data are also due.

Also on Tuesday, The World Trade Centre committee on budget, finance and administration will hold a meeting.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will hold his annual press briefing at the China National People’s Congress.

Wednesday sees the ABS release December housing starts data. Westpac Banking Corporation and the Melbourne Institute will release their consumer sentiment index for March.

In the United Kingdom, average earnings data for the three months to March will be released. Also February claimant count data and ILO unemployment rate figures for March will also be released.

Across the Atlantic US import and exports price data released, while current account balance data for the December quarter is due.

The weekly Energy Information Administration petroleum status report is also on tap, as well as weekly Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage applications data.

Wednesday afternoonsees World Bank deputy vice finance minister for international affairs Masatsugu Asakawa address a eurozone crisis conference hosted by the Asia Development Bank Institute.

US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at the 2012 Independent Community Bankers of America national convention

Thursday brings January lending finance data for the month of January in Australia also new car sales data for February is also set for release.

Elsewhere, the Melbourne Institute will release both its consumer inflation and employment expectation surveys for March.

Thursday morningdelivers US jobless claims data and the February producer price index in the US.

Along with several other releases in America including, The Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey and the US Treasury international capital data is on tap, alongside the New York Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

Friday brings highly anticipated consumer price index data for February in the US.

The Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index for March and industrial production for February data will also be released.

On Saturday, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development will release its interim assessment.

Economic Events in Europe this week

Mar. 12	06:45	EUR	French CPI (MoM)
08:15	CHF	PPI (MoM)
09:30	GBP	Current Account
Mar. 13	00:01	GBP	RICS House Price Balance
08:15	CHF	Industrial Production (QoQ)
09:30	GBP	Trade Balance
10:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment
10:00	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment
Mar. 14	09:30	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus
09:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change
10:00	EUR	CPI (YoY)
10:00	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)
10:00	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)
Mar. 15	00:01	GBP	Nationwide Consumer Confidence
08:30	CHF	Interest Rate Decision
09:00	EUR	Employment Change (QoQ)
09:00	EUR	ECB Monthly Report
Mar. 16	08:00	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI
08:30	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI
09:00	EUR	Manufacturing PMI
11:00	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders

Economic Events in the USA this week

Mar. 12	19:00	USD	Federal Budget Balance
Mar. 13	12:30	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)
12:30	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)
18:00	USD	10-Year Note Auction
18:15	USD	Interest Rate Decision
18:15	USD	FOMC Statement
Mar. 14	12:30	USD	Current Account
12:30	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)
Mar. 15	12:30	USD	Core PPI (MoM)
12:30	USD	PPI (MoM)
12:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims
12:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
12:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims
13:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
14:00	USD	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Mar. 16	12:30	USD	Core CPI (MoM)
12:30	USD	CPI (MoM)
13:15	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)
13:55	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Government Bond Auction Schedule (this week)

Mar 12 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn new Sep 2012 Bubill

Mar 12 18:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes

Mar 13 09:30 Netherlands Eur 2.5bn-3.5bn re-opened Apr 2015 DSL

Mar 13 10:10 Italy BOT auction

Mar 13 10:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Mar 13 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 22

Mar 13 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes

Mar 14 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction

Mar 14 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills

Mar 14 10:30 Swiss Bond auction

Mar 14 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond exchange auction on Mar 21

Mar 14 18:00 US Auctions 30Y Bonds

Mar 15 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction

Mar 15 09:50 France BTAN auction

Mar 15 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2042 conventional Gilt

Mar 15 10:50 France OATi auction

Mar 15 16:00 US Announces auction of 10Y TIPS on Mar 22

Originally posted here