By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: While the ranges are wider (and so should stops be), the lines are rather distinctive, especially towards the borders of the long term wide range. This pair makes for good trades, with the new austerity program implemented in the UK, the GBP is moving more on Fundamentals now.
- The interest rate differential between the Bank of England(BoE) and the Federal Reserve
- High yield and attractive growth in the UK drives GBP/USD higher
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The GBP/USD fell to new recent lows ending the week at 1.5798. With turmoil in Greece and the down grade of Spanish banks, the dollar became the safe haven for investors running from anything European which gave the dollar huge strength against all of its trading partners. The Pound was unable to make any headway against the Dollar and retreated steadily through the course of the week before finding a degree of support. The scope for defensive UK support was perfectly illustrated by the latest two-year bond auction, as yields fell sharply to 0.35% as bidding interest remained strong.
Major Economic Events for the week of May 14-18 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, and the Franc
|
CHF |
PPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-0.3% |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-8.6B |
-8.4B |
-8.6B |
|
EUR |
GDP (QoQ) |
0.0% |
-0.2% |
-0.3% |
|
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-2.4 |
11.7 |
13.1 |
|
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
-13.7K |
5.0K |
-5.4K |
|
GBP |
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
0.6% |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.6% |
1.5% |
1.6% |
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
2.6% |
2.6% |
Historical:
Highest: 1.681 USD on 17 Nov 2009.
Average: 1.5807 USD over this period
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
May 21 |
5:45 |
CHF |
SECO Consumer Climate |
-18 |
-19 |
|
May 22 |
8:30 |
GBP |
CPI y/y |
3.5% |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
15.9B |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
RPI y/y |
3.6% |
||
|
TBD |
GBP |
BOE Inflation Letter |
|||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.48M |
||
|
May 23 |
8:00 |
EUR |
Current Account |
-1.3B |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
MPC Meeting Minutes |
0-0-9 |
||
|
TBD |
EUR |
Industrial New Orders m/m |
-1.2% |
||
|
10:00 |
GBP |
CBI Industrial Order Expectations |
-8 |
||
|
TBD |
GBP |
Inflation Report Hearings |
|||
|
14:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales |
328K |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
|||
|
May 24 |
6:00 |
CHF |
Trade Balance |
1.69B |
|
|
7:00 |
EUR |
French Flash Manufacturing PMI |
46.9 |
||
|
7:00 |
EUR |
French Flash Services PMI |
45.2 |
||
|
7:30 |
EUR |
German Flash Manufacturing PMI |
46.2 |
||
|
7:30 |
EUR |
German Flash Services PMI |
52.2 |
||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate |
109.9 |
||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
45.9 |
||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Flash Services PMI |
46.9 |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales m/m |
1.8% |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Revised GDP q/q |
-0.2% |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
31.9K |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Prelim Business Investment q/q |
-3.3% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Durable Goods Orders m/m |
-4.0% |
||
|
13:00 |
EUR |
Belgium NBB Business Climate |
-10.7 |
Originally posted here
