GBPJPY – Although GBPJPY turned ahead of its 2011 low at 116.78 level on Thursday and followed through higher on Friday, it still closed lower suggesting further downside vulnerability. The cross could force further declines in the new week, a view which is consistent with its long term downtrend. This if seen will push the cross lower towards the 116.78 level where a decisive violation will call for a run at the 115.00 and 114.00 levels, all representing its psycho levels. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, GBPJPY will have to break and close above the 120.78 level, its Sept 29’2011 high to prevent a return to the 116.78 level. Above the 120.78 level will open the door for a further move towards its Sept 15’2011 high at 122.26 with a loss of there allowing for more strength towards its Aug 10’2011 low at 123.27. A reversal of roles as resistance should occur here and possibly push the cross back down in the direction of its long term downtrend. All in all, the cross remains vulnerable to the downside in the long term as risk of a return to the 116.78 level looms.
