Today we came within 2 1/2 cents of my upside target in CZ (December Corn) at 555.
Just goes to show what patience can give us. I am still long a small position from the original buy in at 5.11
My shorts in the Stock indexes were stopped out, thankfully. We booked profits, however, I did not feel the need to flip and get long.
Some time between now and the end of January, we will have a chance to buy on a break.
There is a seasonal tendency for markets to rally through December, in thin holiday trade.
As far as I am concerned, any money made in December is found money. Typically December is a choppy drift higher, and not a market I which favors my style of trading.
Goldman Sachs raised its GDP forecast from 2.0 percent to 2.7 percent. Not a big surprise that the market rallies off of their prognostications. I am cynical enough to think they are putting out bullish stories to unload longs before the holiday’s to pay for their employee bonuses.
Back to the grains,
I like building a small spec long position in all the grains now, especially wheat. You have to be willing to get long on breaks and sell into rallies, which can be very frightening in these volatile markets.
Bottom line, right now its a weather market for wheat. Too wet in Australia, too dry in Kansas, Egypt bought a bunch of our grain overnight, and in a thinly traded market, we are off to the races higher.
Corn looks bullish longer term, as do beans. China had good economic growth, despite the efforts of the Chinese to curb growth and demand by raising bank rates, and decrying their home grown speculators.
If the Chinese do have shortages of any kind, people will horde, or there will develop a black market.
Albeit, a black market where the purveyors are taking their lives in their hands, but a black market, none the less.
I would sit tight in front of our Friday’s unemployment number. I am leaning towards the opinion that until we get a marked move above or below 1 percent from our current benchmark of 10 percent, that these numbers will become less and less impactful, other than short term fluctuations, for the markets.
But that’s just my opinion.
Good Trading.
In general, I don’t want to be short any thing as we head into the holiday markets.
