You too can make a million dollars trading and I can show you how for the low, low price of just $19.99. Just kidding. It is my lame attempt at an April Fool’s joke. I do find those ads quite funny, though, you know, the ones that profess to having the secret to making millions in the market and they want to let you in on it for some cheap price. Here is what I don’t get – if they have the secret to making millions, why are they selling it?
It is the end of March here in Central California and it is raining, which is good because of our drought. The forecast is for more rain throughout the week, which is a bummer because am just about finished building a “playroom” for our big teen boy and his big teen friends. On the other side of the garage, out of ear-shot, and plenty big and strong it is (May the force be with us). Oh well, we need the rain and the wood will dry out …
It appears the market is headed for a third day of gain. Maybe it will turn around later, but, as of this moment, the US economic data that came out this morning, the mixed bag that it is, is not deterring it from moving forward. Maybe the data out of China is buoying the market.
- Asian shares hit four-month high on Tuesday after China’s official PMI survey showed manufacturing managed to continue expanding in March.
Or maybe it is the car sales report from Chrysler that has the market believing.
- Chrysler Group, a unit of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, beat expectations with a 13 percent rise in March auto sales in its home U.S. market.
The number above fits into the theme of the overall car market sales – they are rebounding from the drop off in January and March (ugly weather kept folks home) and are now on track to beat year-over-year sales by 10%. Car sales are a great barometer of consumer sentiment, so my guess is the market kikes the numbers and sees things only getting better as the weather moves toward wonderful in most parts of the US.
Then again, that optimistic sentiment about car sales and the economy could be shattered if “colorful CME trader Tres Knippa” is right. He thinks crude is “a raging buy at $100.”
- He says crude could be approaching $125 or $130 without any outside help. A little uptick in the Middle East would bring $150 into play and the previously unthinkable $200 level is a possibility if the world really comes unhinged.
Don’t panic. Apparently, we have another hilltop screamer telling us about the pending apocalypse. Maybe his prediction will come to pass. The world could fall apart over Ukraine, but it probably won’t for the reasons I have stated about Russia’s need to remain economically sound (restless natives). More likely, oil will bump up as the driving season begins in earnest toward the end of May.
As well, here is another point to consider if you think Mr. Knippa is onto something with his prediction. In 2008, oil went up, up, up when the world was seriously on the verge of financial collapse, which, by all measures, is the same result investors fear about a war in Europe. Back then, oil hit the roof at $147 per barrel and the average price of a gallon of gas in the US hit a record $4.11. It would take something as serious as a global financial collapse and more to get oil and gas back to those levels, much less $200 and $4.50.
- The FBI is investigating whether high-frequency trading companies break the law by abusing fast-moving information they receive before other investors. Inter alia, the agency is looking at whether traders manipulate the market by placing a set of orders and then very quickly canceling them.
It is true; the market is rigged, but so what? Ideally, we would all like a level playing field, but that ain’t gonna happen, ever, so get used to the fact that there are those who will always have an advantage and there are those that can drive the market this way or that. There will always be greedy schemers playing the con. Go get em, I say to the authorities. In the meantime, though, I say to you, keep making money, despite what the greedy creeps do. Sure, they move the market, but so does the breathless media, the words of Janet Yellen, and myriad other influences unknown and coming out of the blue. The market moves for lots of irrational reasons, so go with it when you can and ditch it if you have to.
Trade in the day; Invest in your life …
