Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned systematically bullish on 11/23/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/21/12, thereby turning systematically bullish.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,409.15) jumped 1.30% on Friday. NYSE trading volume fell 43% to a level 59% below its 200-day SMA, as many traders extended their Thanksgiving holiday to the traditionally quiet day after (Friday).
The stock market might be getting overbought after 5 consecutive up days that have retraced about half of the losses over the past 2-months.
The technical condition of the stock market has not supported the excessive optimism that the bullish majority of stock investors and traders clearly exhibited over the past several months. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts preserved capital over the past 9 weeks while the S&P 500 fell 8.9%, based on intraday highs and lows from 9/14/12 to 11/16/12. In addition, our clients’ accounts made gains every quarter for the past 6 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1464.02, high of 10/18/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1426.31, 50-day SMA
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1383.24, 200-day SMA
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically neutral on 11/2/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.86, 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) turned systematically neutral on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, but the 50-200 spread has been narrowing gradually.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO price fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 32.88, 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned systematically bullish on 11/23/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. GLD price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. Support: 165.18, 162.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral on 11/5/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. GDX/GLD fell below its 200-day SMA on 11/12/12. The 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA since 10/19/12, but a bearish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/21/12, thereby turning systematically bullish. The 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/1/12. Support 29.84, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 33.23, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/20/12, thereby turning systematically bullish. Longer term, SLV/GLD 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/9/12 and remains moderately above.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/22/12 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 10/19/12. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, and so this price weakness may be taken as a warning about economic conditions ahead.
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.33% Taiwan Index, EWT
3.25% Sweden Index, EWD
3.13% Austria Index, EWO
2.98% Germany Index, EWG
2.88% Netherlands Index, EWN
2.78% EMU Europe Index, EZU
2.77% Italy Index, EWI
2.74% Networking, IGN
2.73% Spain Index, EWP
2.64% France Index, EWQ
2.50% European VIPERs, VGK
2.41% China 25 iS, FXI
2.40% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
2.38% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
2.22% Switzerland Index, EWL
2.22% Belgium Index, EWK
2.22% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
2.15% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
2.14% Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.04% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
2.02% Hong Kong Index, EWH
2.00% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.97% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.95% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.95% Global 100, IOO
1.95% Australia Index, EWA
1.90% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.68% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.68% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.66% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.66% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.64% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.64% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.63% Singapore Index, EWS
1.62% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.57% South Korea Index, EWY
1.56% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.56% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.56% Energy Global, IXC
1.56% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
1.55% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.53% Dividend International, PID
1.52% Russia MV, RSX
1.52% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.48% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.46% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.44% Canada Index, EWC
1.42% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.41% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.37% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.37% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.36% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.36% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.35% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.35% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.34% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.34% Energy DJ, IYE
1.33% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.32% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.32% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
1.32% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.31% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.30% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.30% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.30% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
1.29% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.29% Mexico Index, EWW
1.28% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.28% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.28% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
1.27% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.26% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.26% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.25% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
1.24% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.24% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.24% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.23% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
1.23% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.22% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.22% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.21% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.21% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.21% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.21% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.21% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.20% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.20% Japan Index, EWJ
1.18% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.16% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.15% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.14% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.14% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.12% Water Resources, PHO
1.11% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.11% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.11% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.10% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.10% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.08% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.07% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.07% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.07% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.07% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.04% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.04% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.01% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.99% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.97% South Africa Index, EZA
0.87% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.87% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.85% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.84% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.82% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.81% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.80% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.74% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.71% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.68% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.68% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.62% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.42% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.36% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.34% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.34% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.18% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.16% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.14% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.06% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.06% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.04% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.06% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.06% India PS, PIN
-0.07% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.10% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.15% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.26% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.26% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.33% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.28% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
