Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) and Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trends both turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when prices whipsawed back up above 50-day SMAs. Longer term down trends may not be finished yet, however.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) remains systematically neutral, although its trend appears to be changing in a more bullish direction. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/12/13.
U.S. stock market price indexes opened below the lows of the previous 8 trading days on Monday but bounced back to close mixed in light summertime trading. Prices closed above the open and above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,689.47) finished lower by just 0.12%.
Although the bullish majority was still willing to buy the dip on Monday, the SPX is nearly unchanged over the past 3 weeks, which suggests a loss of upside price momentum.
NYSE total volume fell 7% a level 17% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE rose modestly. In July and so far in August, both failed to rise above their May highs; the S&P 500 rose to a new high at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13, but Volume and Breadth did not rise to higher highs. Therefore, both Volume and Breadth remain bearishly divergent relative to the price indexes. In addition, the Net Number of New Highs-Lows remains far below its May high, thereby diverging bearishly as well.
Popular price momentum oscillators based on SPX, such as RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9), failed to rise above their May highs in recent weeks to confirm new highs by the price indexes. So, both oscillators remain bearishly divergent.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) remains systematically neutral, although its trend appears to be changing in a more bullish direction. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/12/13.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed. Absolute price has drifted slightly lower after peaking at 64.14 on 5/22/13.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) remains systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/2/13, and the 50-day SMA could be heading toward a possible bearish cross below the 200-day SMA in weeks ahead. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a systematically bullish trend above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. In recent weeks, however, USO price has stalled out below its peak of 38.62 on 7/19/13. Support 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 38.62, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA. GLD may be consolidating losses within its longer term downtrend: price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD price trend was bearish since price peaked at 185.85 on 9/6/11 until price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, and that down trend may not be finished. Support: 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 130.14, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA. SLV may be consolidating losses within its longer term downtrend: SLV price trend was bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11 until price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, and that down trend may not be finished. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.89, 20.53, 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, and that long-term down trend may not be over.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13, and that long-term down trend may not be over. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
10.45% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
3.03% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
2.91% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
0.95% , IGN , Networking, IGN
6.28% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
3.40% , JWN , NORDSTROM
4.35% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.59% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
0.68% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
3.24% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
2.14% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
1.13% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
2.84% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
2.91% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
1.57% , PKI , PERKINELMER
0.62% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
4.71% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
1.37% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.44% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.54% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
0.43% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.75% , BBY , BEST BUY
1.10% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
1.79% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.52% , L , LOEWS
1.47% , CMI , CUMMINS
1.20% , XRX , XEROX
0.08% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
0.61% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
0.37% , QLD , Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
1.10% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
0.55% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
0.33% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.77% , SYY , SYSCO
-0.55% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-3.66% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-1.46% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
-2.57% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
-1.41% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.72% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
-1.63% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-0.23% , IVE , Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.34% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-2.28% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
-0.38% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.68% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.85% , AMP , Ameriprise Financial Inc.
-0.28% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.95% , AN , AUTONATION
-0.82% , KO , COCA COLA
-0.34% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.51% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-1.51% , TYC , TYCO INTL
-1.08% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
-0.45% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-0.93% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-0.11% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
-0.50% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.35% , AON , AON
-0.91% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.22% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
-0.60% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-0.13% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-0.68% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.03% , IVW , Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.64% , EXC , EXELON CORP
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.35% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
3.24% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.79% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.63% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.45% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.37% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.36% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.21% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.20% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.13% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.07% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.95% , Networking, IGN
0.93% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.89% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.87% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.85% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.81% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.70% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.69% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.68% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.68% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.66% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.65% , Russia MV, RSX
0.63% , Australia Index, EWA
0.61% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.55% , Water Resources, PHO
0.54% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.53% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.48% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.47% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.46% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.45% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.45% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.44% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.43% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.39% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.38% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.37% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.34% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.34% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.33% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.33% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.31% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.30% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.29% , Canada Index, EWC
0.24% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.24% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.24% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.23% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.23% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.22% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.20% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.19% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.14% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.13% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.13% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.13% , India PS, PIN
0.11% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.07% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.04% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.00% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.01% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.01% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.02% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.03% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.03% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.03% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.04% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.05% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.05% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.05% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.05% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.05% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.06% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.06% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.07% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.07% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.07% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.07% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.08% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.08% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.08% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.09% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.09% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.09% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.10% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.12% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.13% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.13% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.14% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.15% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.15% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.15% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.20% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.23% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.23% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.24% , Global 100, IOO
-0.25% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.26% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.26% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.27% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.27% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.28% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.29% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.29% , Dividend International, PID
-0.31% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.33% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.34% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.37% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.38% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.38% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.39% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.41% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.41% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.42% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.45% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.45% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.46% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.46% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.47% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.50% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.51% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.51% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.51% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.53% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.54% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.55% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.59% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.61% , France Index, EWQ
-0.68% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.68% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.71% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.74% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.81% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.82% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.82% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.85% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.91% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.41% , Mexico Index, EWW
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1660.03, Fib 78.6% of May-June 2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1653.53, 50-day SMA
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1544.68, 200-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
