Gold Bulls in Near-Term Technical Control

Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log NOTE: I am out of the office today. My friend and fellow market analyst Ken Seehusen produced my report.—Jim

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 3872.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3541.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3659.25. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3872.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3541.74. Second support is February’s low crossing at 3412.00.

The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, December’s high crossing at 1846.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1785.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1827.40. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 1846.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1793.37. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1785.68.

INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off this month’s high, the 50% retracement level of the January-February rally crossing at 131- 13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 133-10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 133- 10. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 135-03. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 132-00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-February rally crossing at 131-13.

ENERGY MARKETS: March Nymex crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January’s low, the 87% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at 102.69 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 101.88. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at 102.69. First support is the 10- day moving average crossing at 98.94. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.79.

CURRENCIES: The March Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this month’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If March extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 79.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.86 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.86. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at 81.52. First support is the overnight low crossing at 80.11. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.82.

PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January’s low, the 62% retracement level of the August-December decline crossing at 1335.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1264.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1319.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-December decline crossing at 1335.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1276.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1264.10. March silver was sharply higher overnight and has broken out to the topside of a three-month old trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the late-January low, the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at 21.905 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.873 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at 21.150. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at 21.905. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.873. Second support is the late-January low crossing at 18.970.

GRAINS: March corn was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 4.71 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.35 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes below minor support crossing at 4.21 would open the door for a larger-degree decline. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 4.49. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 4.71 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.35 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.21. March wheat was higher overnight as it extends this month’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January’s low, the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at 6.14 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.73 1/4 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 6.02 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at 6.14 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.73 1/4. Second support is January’s low crossing at 5.50 1/2. March soybeans were higher overnight as it extends Thursday’s breakout above key resistance marked by December’s high crossing at 13.39 1/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month’s rally, last September’s high crossing at 13.77 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 13.56. Second resistance is last September’s high crossing at 13.77 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.26. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.05.