By FXEmpire.com
Gold Fundamental Analysis April 12, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold was down 0.1 percent on the day at $1,659.00 an ounce
Gold steadied on Wednesday, after rising for four days straight, as the intensifying euro zone debt crisis threatened to undermine the euro and offset any potential safe-haven demand for the metal.
The euro rose on Wednesday but has come under pressure in the past week as the debt crisis has reignited. The focus is now on Spain, where the head of the central bank said on Tuesday commercial banks would need more capital if the economy continues to deteriorate.
Benchmark 10-year Spanish yields touched 6 percent for the first time since early December on Wednesday, having risen by more than two-thirds of a percentage point in the past week alone, while peripheral banking stocks have been pummeled.
Investment in gold has cooled somewhat. Speculators have cut their ownership of U.S. gold futures by more than a quarter since late February, although holdings of the metal in exchange-traded funds remain near record highs above 70 million ounces.
Demand for gold jewelry in China continued to grow in 2011, expanding almost 15% to a new record high, a trend that looks likely to be repeated this year, metals consultancy GFMS Ltd. said Wednesday.
Markets are waiting for the U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book, the Fed’s official assessment on economic conditions in the 12 Federal Reserve districts due later today. The report is released exactly two weeks before the Fed’s next monetary policy meeting on April 24-25, the Beige Book report should confirm the signs of consistent improvement in the U.S. economy, lessening the likelihood of more quantitative easing by the U.S. central bank. As long as QE3 odds remain low, the USD should benefit.
Commodities could move in either direction after the release.
Economic Reports April 11, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Apr. 11 |
AUD |
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
-1.60% |
-5.00% |
|
AUD |
Home Loans (MoM) |
-2.5% |
-3.5% |
-1.1% |
|
JPY |
BoJ Monthly Report |
|||
|
HUF |
Hungarian CPI (YoY) |
5.5% |
5.7% |
5.9% |
|
EUR |
German 10-Year Bund Auction |
1.770% |
1.830% |
|
|
Housing Starts |
216K |
200K |
205K |
|
|
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
1.3% |
0.8% |
-0.1% |
Economic Events: (GMT)
09:30 GBP Trade Balance -7.7B -7.5B
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.
13:30 CAD Trade Balance 2.0B 2.1B
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.
13:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) 0.2% 0.2%
13:30 USD PPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.4%
The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the selling price of goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. The PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller. When producers pay more for goods and services, they are more likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation. The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
13:30 USD Trade Balance -52.0B -52.6B
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 355K 357K
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3335K 3338K
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.
Government Bond Auctions April 10-20, 2012
Apr 12 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Apr 12 09:30 UK Gbp 2.0bn 4.25% Jun 2032 Conventional Gilt
Apr 12 15:00 US Announces auction of 5Y TIPS on Apr 19
Apr 12 17:00 US Auctions 30Y Bonds
Apr 13 10:00 Belgium OLO mini bond auction
Apr 16-30 n/a UK Re-opened 3.75% 2052 Conventional Gilt syndication
Apr 16 09:10 Slovakia Auctions floating rate Nov 2016 & 4.35% Oct 2025 & Bonds
Apr 16 09:10 Norway T-bill auction
Apr 17 08:30 Spain 12 & 18M T-bill auction
Apr 17 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills
Apr 18 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Apr 18 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz
Apr 18 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 25
Apr 19 08:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Apr 19 08:50 France BTAN auction
Apr 19 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029
Apr 19 09:50 France OATi auction
Originally posted here
