Gold Fundamental Analysis April 16, 2012, Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is falling trading at 1668.65 down -11.95 in midsessions today. European markets traded on a negative note today as unfavorable GDP data from China led to rise in risk aversion in the global markets. China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a slower pace in nearly three years by 8.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012 with respect to 8.9 percent in fourth quarter of 2011. Additionally, Spain’s bond yield rose today after data indicating Spanish banks borrowed heavily from the European Central Bank in March which also acted as a negative factor for market sentiments.

Gold prices declined by 0.1 percent today on the back of strengthen in dollar index and choppy sentiments in the global markets. The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of $ 1669/oz and hovered around $ 1674/oz Spot gold held steady after posting almost one percent rise in the previous session.

Bullions have already digested the news of contraction of the Chinese economy in the first quarter of 2012 and better than expected outcome for the Italian bond auction. Chinese GDP expansion eased to 8.1 percent compared to the last quarter’s 8.9 percent. At the same time investors will keenly watch the outcome of the Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s speech hoping for a hint of monetary easing.

Gold continues to fall, on disappointing data from the US.

The cost of living rose again in March even as the price of gasoline leveled off, the U.S. government reported Friday.

The consumer price index climbed 0.3% last month as the cost of most goods and services rose, the Labor Department said. The increase outstripped the rise in wages, so inflation-adjusted earnings for the average American worker fell 0.1% last month.

Economists expected a 0.2% increase in the cost of living.

Consumer sentiment defies economists’ expectations in early April, easing on worries about current conditions, according to the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters.

We will all wait to play the Bernanke shuffle as he speaks today. We will see what he does to the markets. Will Gold go up or down; the markets are waiting a direction.

Economic Reports for April 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

JPY	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
CNY	Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)	20.9%	20.8%	21.5%
CNY	Chinese GDP (YoY)	8.1%	8.3%	8.9%
CNY	Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)	11.9%	11.5%	11.4%
CNY	Chinese Retail Sales (YoY)	15.2%	15.0%	14.7%
EUR	German CPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
EUR	Finnish CPI (YoY)	2.90%	3.10%
GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	1.9%	1.2%	2.5%
USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
USD	CPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%

Economic Events for April 16, 2012

08:15 CHF PPI (MoM) 0.5% 0.8%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

13:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.6% 0.9%

Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.

13:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases -4.19B

Foreign Securities Purchases measures the overall value of domestic stocks, bonds, and money-market assets purchased by foreign investors.

13:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4% 1.1%

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

13:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 21.1 20.2

The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 16-30 n/a UK Re-opened 3.75% 2052 Conventional Gilt syndication

Apr 16 09:10 Slovakia Auctions floating rate Nov 2016 & 4.35% Oct 2025 & Bonds

Apr 16 09:10 Norway T-bill auction

Apr 17 08:30 Spain 12 & 18M T-bill auction

Apr 17 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Apr 18 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Apr 18 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz

Apr 18 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 25

Apr 19 08:30 Spain Obligacion auction

Apr 19 08:50 France BTAN auction

Apr 19 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029

Apr 19 09:50 France OATi auction

Originally posted here