By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold has been falling throughout today’s trading session to trade at this time at 1629.75 down -13.05. Gold and silver prices fell in electronic trade during Monday business hours in Europe, as the dollar rose on risk aversion amid worrying political developments in the euro zone and as China data showed continued contraction for the manufacturing sector.
Unabated concerns over Euro zone’s debt crisis and US economic releases postponed investor action. Investors have already digested the news of the stabilization of Chinese factories in April as output ticked higher. HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index showed China’s industrial activity recovered slightly to 49.1 in April from revious month’s 48.3. However investors will closely watch the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later in the week which may weigh in on US economic health. At the same time, as per reports, Indian gold traders are staying away from purchasing gold, despite the Akshya Tritya on Tuesday, as weak rupee made importing gold more expensive.
There is a clear division among the FOMC policy makers on when the Fed should start tightening monetary policy. Some policy makers have called for an exit and rate hikes as early as this year, while a couple of committee members felt that policy accommodation should continue until 2016. With some of the recent U.S. economic data beginning to show signs of weakness and forecasts predicting slower economic growth, it would not be surprising to see the Fed maintaining a dovish stance and expressing a cautious outlook on the economy and the labor market, but stopping short of announcing another round of quantitative easing at this meeting.
However, QE3 will not be completely out of the picture and will remain as a viable option, especially if the occasional soft spots in the U.S. economic data become a persistent trend of deteriorating economic conditions lasting for at least a couple of months. Although additional quantitative easing may not come until the second half of the year or simply not at all, the future fate of the U.S. dollar will continue to depend on QE3 expectations and the Fed’s next move.
The dollar rose amid increased political risk in Europe after the Socialist Party candidate for the French presidential election, Francois Hollande took a narrow lead in the first round of the country’s election. Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen finished a surprise third. French election results overnight confirmed that Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande will face one another in the final runoff election on May 6. Scotia’s European economics team notes that the market consequences of the results (albeit not unexpected) are likely to be not great. Mr Hollande has said that he wants to renegotiate the fiscal compact that was agreed by Mr Sarkozy. In particular, Hollande wants to create more pro-growth measures. For France specifically, the underlying thrust (i.e. pace of tightening) of the domestic fiscal policy plans under Hollande would not be that different to Sarkozy. However, the emphasis is likely to be more dependent on tax hikes than spending cuts.
Economic Data for April 23, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
AUD |
PPI (QoQ) |
-0.3% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
|
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
49.10 |
48.30 |
|
|
EUR |
French Business Survey |
95 |
96 |
98 |
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
47.3 |
47.2 |
46.7 |
|
EUR |
French Services PMI |
46.4 |
50.2 |
50.1 |
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
46.3 |
49.0 |
48.4 |
|
EUR |
German Services PMI |
52.6 |
52.3 |
52.1 |
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
46.0 |
48.2 |
47.7 |
|
EUR |
Services PMI |
47.9 |
49.4 |
49.2 |
|
EUR |
Italian Consumer Confidence |
89.0 |
96.5 |
96.3 |
|
TWD |
Taiwanese Industrial Production (YoY) |
-3.4% |
-6.8% |
8.4% |
|
EUR |
German 12-Month Bubill Auction |
0.074% |
0.077% |
|
|
Wholesale Sales (MoM) |
1.6% |
-1.0% |
-1.1% |
|
|
EUR |
French 3-Month BTF Auction |
0.090% |
0.084% |
|
|
EUR |
French 6-Month BTF Auction |
0.121% |
0.119% |
|
|
EUR |
French 12-Month BTF Auction |
0.250% |
0.249% |
|
|
MXN |
Mexican Retail Sales (YoY) |
7.6% |
5.0% |
4.4% |
Economic Events scheduled for April 24, 2012 that affect the European and American Markets
07:00 EUR Finnish Unemployment Rate 7.40%
The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed persons expressed as a percentage of the labor force. The unemployment rate for a particular age/sex group is the number of unemployed in that group expressed as a percentage of the labor force for that group.
10:00 EUR Industrial New Orders (MoM) -0.5% -2.3%
Industrial New Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of production. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
15:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 70.3 70.8
Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.
15:00 USD New Home Sales 320K 313K
New Home Sales measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month. This report tends to have more impact when it’s released ahead of Existing Home Sales because the reports are tightly correlated
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Originally posted here
