Gold Fundamental Analysis February 22, 2012, Forecast
Economic Events: (GMT)
Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could effect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements–including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.
These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.
06:30 EUR French CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.4%
The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
08:00 EUR French Manufacturing PMI 48.7 48.5
08:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.0
09:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI 49.4 48.8
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
09:30 GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the Bank of England’s policy setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates. The breakdown of the MPC members’ interest rate votes tends to be the most important part of the minutes.
10:00 EUR Industrial New Orders (MoM) 0.6% -1.2%
Industrial New Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of production.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
15:00 USD Existing Home Sales 4.67M 4.61M
Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold advanced $26, or 1.5%, to $1,751.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It had earlier traded as high as $1,752.50 an ounce. U.S. markets were closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday, and Tuesday was the first floor trading day to react to the Greek news.
February 21, 2012 Economic Reports actual v forecast
|
NZD |
Inflation Expectations (QoQ) |
2.5% |
2.8% |
|
|
AUD |
RBA Governor Stevens Speaks | |||
|
JPY |
All Industries Activity Index (MoM) |
1.3% |
1.5% |
-1.0% |
|
CHF |
Trade Balance |
1.55B |
2.50B |
2.01B |
|
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
-10.7B |
-9.1B |
11.1B |
|
TRY |
Turkish Interest Rate Decision |
5.75% |
5.75% |
5.75% |
| Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
|
CAD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
0.4% |
|
CAD |
Wholesale Sales (MoM) |
0.9% |
0.5% |
-0.3% |
|
USD |
Chicago Fed National Activity |
0.22 |
0.22 |
0.54 |
|
EUR |
Consumer Confidence |
-20 |
-20 |
-21 |
|
USD |
2-Year Note Auction |
0.250% |
||
|
ARS |
Argentinian Unemployment Rate |
7.3% |
7.2% |
Originally posted here
