Economic Events: (GMT)
07:00 EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 6.1 5.9
The Gfk German Consumer Climate Index measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. The data is compiled from a survey of about 2,000 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions.
08:15 CHF Employment Level 4.03M 4.02M
The Employment Level measures the number of people employed during the previous quarter. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.
Tent CHF SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Vice Chairman (May 2007 – January 2012) Thomas Jordan is to speak. In January 2010 his title changed from Board Member to Vice Chairman. As a member of the SNB’s Governing Board, which sets short term interest rates, he has a major influence over the value of the Swiss franc. Traders watch his speeches closely as they are often used to drop subtle hints regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts.
11:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey -14 -22
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Distributive Trades Survey (DTS) measures the health of the retail sector. The reading is compiled from a survey covering 20,000 firms responsible for 40% of employment in retailing. It includes measures of sales activity across the distributive trades. It is a leading indicator of consumer spending. The figure is the difference between the percentage of retailers reporting an increase in sales and those reporting a decrease.
Tent EUR German CPI (MoM) 0.5% -0.4%
The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
13:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.0% 2.2%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) -0.8% 3.0%
Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
15:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 63.0 61.1
Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.
Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could affect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements–including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.
These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold is trading slightly down at 1774.75, after falling to 1763.75, as the euro retreated on fears of rising energy costs and finance ministers from the Group of 20 nations over the weekend demanded the currency bloc to boost its firewall to contain its debt crisis. Monday the USD was supported by a jump in pending house sales and a weakening euro, as profit taking was seen all around.
On Thursday last week, gold settled at its highest level since Nov. 11, supported by a lower U.S. dollar.
Gold Fundamental Analysis February 28, 2012, Forecast
Today’s economic releases actual v. forecast
|
EUR |
French PPI (MoM) |
0.6% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
|
EUR |
M3 Money Supply (YoY) |
2.5% |
1.8% |
1.5% |
|
|
EUR |
Private Loans (YoY) |
1.1% |
1.2% |
1.0% |
|
|
EUR |
Italian Business Confidence |
91.5 |
92.0 |
92.1 |
|
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 28 01:30 Japan Auctions 2Y JGBs
Feb 28 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Feb 28 10:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills
Feb 28 15:30 UK Details gilt auctions on Mar 06 & Mar 07
Feb 29 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Feb 29 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund
Feb 29 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond auction on Mar 07
Mar 01 09:30 Spain Bono auction
Mar 01 09:50 France OAT auction
Mar 01 10.30 UK Auctions 4.0% 2022 conventional Gilt
Originally posted here
