Economic Events: (GMT)
Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could affect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements–including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.
These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.
13:30 USD GDP Price Index (QoQ) 0.4% 0.4%
13:30 USD GDP (QoQ) 2.8% 2.8%
The GDP Price Index measures the annualized change in the price of all goods and services included in gross domestic product. It are the broadest inflationary indicator.
14:30 USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member (2008 and 2011) Richard Fisher is to speak. FOMC members are responsible for setting the benchmark interest rate and their speeches are closely watched for indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.
14:45 USD Chicago PMI 61.8 60.2
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) determines the economic health of the manufacturing sector in Chicago region. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing sector; a reading below indicates contraction. The Chicago PMI can be of some help in forecasting the ISM manufacturing PMI.
15:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. The testimony is in two parts; the first is a prepared statement, then the committee conducts a question and answer session. The Q&A portion of the testimony can see heavy market volatility for the duration.
19:00 USD Beige Book
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book is a report on current economic conditions in each of the 12 Federal districts in the U.S. It gives a picture of economic trends and challenges in the U.S. It is released 8 times a year, 2 weeks before each Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The report is used by the FOMC in their decision on short-term interest rates.
Gold Fundamental Analysis February 29, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold is trading 1787.45 after hitting a high of 1791.65 up 11.50 this session.
Gold rose to a three-month high as value-buying and a lower dollar lifted the metal, surging more than 4.5% to end at its best since September 2011. ECB Draghi suggested banks might ask about the same amount, as during the first operation at the end of December. The first LTRO has been considered a huge success. It induced risk appetite, stimulated trading in more risky markets and relieved fears surrounding banks and sovereigns.
U.S. home prices fell 1.1% in December to bring the year-over-year fall to 4%, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday. Also today in the data showing orders for durable goods sank 4% in January, the U.S. Commerce Department said.
Economic Data February 28, 2012 actual v forecast
| CHF | Consumption Indicator | 0.92 | 0.94 | |
| EUR | GfK German Consumer Climate | 6.0 | 6.1 | 5.9 |
| CHF | Employment Level | 4.04M | 4.03M | 4.05M |
| EUR | Business and Consumer Survey | 94.4 | 93.8 | 93.4 |
| EUR | Italian 10-Year BTP Auction | 4.190% | 6.470% | |
| GBP | CBI Distributive Trades Survey | -2 | -14 | -22 |
| CLP | Chilean Unemployment Rate | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% |
| HUF | Hungarian Interest Rate Decision | 7.00% | 7.00% | 7.00% |
| USD | Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) | -3.2% | 0.0% | 2.1% |
| USD | Durable Goods Orders (MoM) | -4.0% | -0.8% | 3.2% |
| EUR | German CPI (MoM) | 0.7% | 0.5% | -0.4% |
| USD | S&P/CS Home Price Indices Composite – 20 (YoY) | -4.0% | -3.6% | -3.9% |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 29 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Feb 29 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund
Feb 29 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond auction on Mar 07
Mar 01 09:30 Spain Bono auction
Mar 01 09:50 France OAT auction
Mar 01 10.30 UK Auctions 4.0% 2022 conventional Gilt
Originally posted here
