Economic Events: (GMT)
Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could effect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements–including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.
These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.
00:15 USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member (2008 and 2011) Richard Fisher is to speak. FOMC members are responsible for setting the benchmark interest rate and their speeches are closely watched for indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.2% 0.2%
13:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls 150K 200K
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate 8.5% 8.5%
13:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls 170K 212K
Average Hourly Earnings measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, not including the agricultural sector.
Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
Private Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of total number of paid U.S. workers of any business, excluding general government employees, private household employees, employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals and farm employees.
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 53.2 52.6
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI ) rates the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The data is compiled from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers in the non-manufacturing sector. On the index, a level above 50 indicates expansion; below indicates contraction.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Gold Fundamental Analysis February 3, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold is trading at 1759.55 climbing over 10.00. Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1735.45 and resistance exists at USD1763.75 a troy ounce.
Gold gained on Greek mixed messages adding to default fears.
Jean Claude Juncker stated talks with private creditors on the Greek debt restructuring plan have proven to be “ultra difficult”. Later, the European Union’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn stated that Greek debt negotiations were at an advanced staged with a conclusion pending.
Followed by a news report stating, that European officials this evening dashed hopes of a fast settlement between Greece and its private bondholders due to the opposition of some of the Greek political leaders towards additional spending cuts demanded by the lenders as well as a disagreement between the IMF and Germany on the involvement of the ECB in the bond swap. Friday will be all about he said, she said.. deal or no deal.
Gold should continue to hold here or rise a bit waiting for news from the EU.
Economic Data Today ( key better than expected worse than expected at forecast )
NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM) 1.2% -0.8%
AUD Building Approvals (MoM) -1.0% 2.1% 10.1%
AUD Trade Balance 1.71B 1.20B 1.34B
CHF Trade Balance 2.07B 2.85B 2.95B
GBP Construction PMI 51.4 52.9 53.2
EUR PPI (MoM) -0.2% -0.1% 0.2%
USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) 38.9% 30.6%
USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 0.7% 1.0% 1.9%
USD Initial Jobless Claims 367K 373K 379K
USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 1.2% 0.9% -2.1%
USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3437K 3565K 3567K
Originally posted here
