Economic Events: (GMT)
Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could effect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements–including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.
These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.
19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance
The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Economic Data results prior trading day ( key better than expected worse than expected at forecast )
|
USD |
Monster Employment Index |
133 |
140 |
|
|
EUR |
French Services PMI |
52.3 |
51.7 |
51.7 |
|
EUR |
German Services PMI |
53.7 |
54.5 |
54.5 |
|
EUR |
Services PMI |
50.4 |
50.5 |
50.5 |
|
GBP |
Services PMI |
56.0 |
53.5 |
54.0 |
|
EUR |
Italian CPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
EUR |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.4% |
0.4% |
-0.4% |
|
Employment Change |
2.3K |
24.0K |
17.5K |
|
|
CAD |
Unemployment Rate |
7.6% |
7.5% |
7.5% |
Gold Fundamental Analysis February 6, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold is trading at 1727.85 down 31.35
The USD soared today after jobs reports beat forecasts in the US.
The US added 243,000 jobs as reported by the Labor Department for the first time since April. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent, the lowest since February 2009.
This was the boost the US needed to signal that the economy was recovering.
Originally posted here
