Gold Fundamental Analysis February 8, 2012, Forecast
Economic Events: (GMT)
There are no significant events in the USA or Europe on Wednesday
Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could effect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements–including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.
These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold is trading at 1748.40 ending an up and down session. Earlier in the day gold began falling hitting the low of 1712.65. As news of a possible deal was reported in Greece the USD began to plummet and Gold did as it should due, it rose. As the dollar came down gold turned around and went up 1.4%.
Review of Tuesday’s Economic Reports
|
00:01 |
GBP |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) |
-0.3% |
-0.8% |
2.2% |
|
03:30 |
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision |
4.25% |
4.00% |
4.25% |
|
03:30 |
AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
|||
|
05:00 |
JPY |
Leading Index |
94.3 |
93.8 |
93.7 |
|
07:45 |
EUR |
French Trade Balance |
-5.0B |
-5.3B |
-4.1B |
|
08:00 |
TWD |
Taiwanese Trade Balance |
0.42B |
2.10B |
2.31B |
|
11:00 |
EUR |
German Industrial Production |
-2.9% |
-0.1% |
0.0% |
|
11:30 |
CLP |
Chilean Trade Balance |
1.98B |
1.15B |
0.39B |
|
13:30 |
Building Permits (MoM) |
11.1% |
0.8% |
-2.6% |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism |
49.4 |
48.3 |
47.5 |
|
16:30 |
USD |
4-Week Bill Auction |
0.060% |
0.050% |
Originally posted here
