By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold spent the day searching for direction, with dips and gains holding close to the 1586.35 price.
The markets are a bit spooked over the EU approval of the bailout for Spain, as there are little details to share and no one seems to know where the money is coming from and what strings the EU is pulling to make Spain toe the line. Just a week ago, the Prime Minster was saying that Spain did not need assistance and then changed his stance where he would only accept a no strings attached loan.
Things radically changed as credit markets dried up and with no help from the IMF or the ECB Spain has been left to flounder.
With the Greek elections just a few days away and the future of the euro at stake, no one knows what to expect, as the EU has not set out any plan.
Gold soared last week on hopes from the Fed, which were dashed by Fed Chair Bernanke when he testified before Congress, saying only the Fed would act if and when the economy showed stress.
The initial news of the Spanish deal sparked a rally, as the euro staged its rally against the dollar. Gold also fared well till now by trading over 0.35% this morning Yet, they did not make clear whether the European Stability Mechanism, or the temporary European Financial Stability Facility, will disburse the loan. While the ESM will be preferred because of paid-in capital but the EFSF may not be a preferred creditor because of collateral demand for using the fund in advance. Hence, we should be cautious that the optimism may be temporary given that the European crisis has hassled market over two years and especially extra cushion should be taken ahead of Greek election on June 17. Beyond this, market expectations will be scattered for the big items like G-20 meeting, the EU Summit and the Fed’s rate decision. Each of these days would be well anticipated and would carry extreme fear for melting down financial situation or a dishearten stimuli which could depress buying opportunity. In absence of any economic releases for the day, market is therefore expected to stay elevated as the Europe and US are still to face it. But, as discussed, market anxiety still remains since there is no indication for a proper channel through which the fund will be laid out. We therefore recommend staying short for the metal from higher levels.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data June 9-10-11, 2012 actual v. forecast ( today was very lite for all of Europe and the US. The Chinese Eco data, had the most effects on the markets )
|
Jun. 09 |
CNY |
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
3.0% |
3.2% |
3.4% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese PPI (YoY) |
-1.4% |
-1.1% |
-0.7% |
||
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (MoM) |
-0.3% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
||
|
CNY |
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) |
20.1% |
20.0% |
20.2% |
||
|
CNY |
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) |
9.6% |
9.9% |
9.3% |
||
|
CNY |
Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) |
13.8% |
14.3% |
14.1% |
||
|
Jun. 10 |
CNY |
Chinese Trade Balance |
18.70B |
16.30B |
18.40B |
|
|
Jun. 11 |
JPY |
BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions |
-5.7 |
-2.4 |
-7.3 |
|
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 12 |
5:45 |
CHF |
|||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
0.9% |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-0.5% |
|||
|
14:00 |
GBP |
0.1% |
|||
|
18:00 |
USD |
59.1B |
|||
|
Jun 13 |
7:15 |
CHF |
-0.1% |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
-0.3% |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-0.2% |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
|||
|
14:00 |
USD |
0.3% |
|||
|
14:30 |
USD |
-0.1M |
|||
|
Jun 14 |
7:30 |
CHF |
<0.25% |
<0.25% |
|
|
7:30 |
CHF |
||||
|
7:30 |
CHF |
||||
|
8:00 |
CHF |
||||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
||||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
2.4% |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
377K |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.0% |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-124B |
|||
|
Jun 15 |
8:30 |
GBP |
-8.6B |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
17.1 |
|||
|
13:00 |
USD |
36.2B |
|||
|
13:15 |
USD |
79.2% |
|||
|
13:15 |
USD |
1.1% |
|||
|
13:55 |
USD |
79.3 |
Click here to read Gold Technical Analysis.
Originally posted here
