Economic Events: (GMT)
The economic calendar is very light for Friday, with the end the 1st falling on Thursday. These events will have no little or significant events in the market. There are also no events scheduled in the US.
Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could affect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements–including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.
These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.
Gold Fundamental Analysis March 2, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold gained Thursday, running with equities and oil as they looked to recover from a 4.3% drop the previous day. Gold is up $10.90, or 0.6%, to settle at $1,722.20. On Wednesday as Fed Chief Bernanke spoke before Congress his tone and the market interpretation caused Gold to drop over $70.00 in just a few minutes.
Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony pointed to “improved data while citing persistent downside risks to the outlook.” With comments by Bernanke lacking a dovish tone that some had expected. Gold fell after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking to lawmakers, left out any hint that more quantitative easing would be on the way, as some had expected.
The markets were also concerned about the effects of the program as the ECB lent a record 529.5 billion euro of three-year loans to 800 financial institutions, up from 523 at the first round of lending in December. Investors are wary banks will become too reliant on ECB funds and fail to take the steps to strengthen their balance sheets.
Some overleveraged investors were forced out of the trade as gold fell 4.3% on Wednesday. Gold needs to hold on to $1,705-$1,700 an ounce this week to have hopes for another leg up. Some economists are still predicting that Gold will hit 2000.00
March 1, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast
|
CHF |
GDP (QoQ) |
0.1% |
-0.1% |
0.3% |
|
GBP |
Nationwide HPI (MoM) |
0.6% |
0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
CHF |
SVME PMI |
49.0 |
48.5 |
47.3 |
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
50.0 |
50.2 |
50.2 |
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
50.2 |
50.1 |
50.1 |
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
49.0 |
49.0 |
49.0 |
|
PLN |
Polish GDP (YoY) |
4.3% |
4.2% |
4.2% |
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
51.2 |
52.0 |
52.0 |
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.7% |
2.6% |
2.6% |
|
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
10.7% |
10.4% |
10.6% |
|
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
| Current Account |
-10.3B |
-9.6B |
-12.3B |
|
|
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
351K |
353K |
353K |
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3402K |
3400K |
3404K |
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
52.4 |
54.6 |
54.1 |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Mar 01 09:30 Spain Bono auction
Mar 01 09:50 France OAT auction
Mar 01 10.30 UK Auctions 4.0% 2022 conventional Gilt
Originally posted here
