By FXEmpire.com
Gold Fundamental Analysis March 21, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold continues to fall, hitting a bottom in today’s session of 1641.35 and closed trading at 1648.35 down 18.95.
As worries began to surface over a slowdown in China, commodities including Gold began to tumble. Gold moved in step with weakness in global stock markets and lower commodity prices, as concerns about a slowdown in China flare up. Over the past two weeks Chinese economic data has been mostly negative and the Chinese PM announced that China was revising their growth rate for 2012 to 7%.
Economic Events: (GMT)
Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could affect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements–including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.
These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.
Economic Releases March 20, 2012 Asia, Europe and the US
|
Mar. 20 |
00:00 |
AUD |
CB Leading Index (MoM) |
1.1% |
-0.3% |
|
08:00 |
EUR |
German PPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
09:15 |
CHF |
Industrial Production (QoQ) |
7.9% |
0.4% |
-2.0% |
|
10:30 |
GBP |
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.4% |
2.4% |
2.6% |
|
10:30 |
GBP |
CPI (YoY) |
3.4% |
3.4% |
3.6% |
|
10:30 |
GBP |
RPI (YoY) |
3.7% |
3.4% |
3.9% |
|
12:00 |
GBP |
CBI Industrial Trends Orders |
-8 |
-5 |
-3 |
|
12:30 |
EUR |
Spanish Trade Balance |
-3.65B |
-4.50B |
-4.50B |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Building Permits |
0.72M |
0.69M |
0.68M |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.70M |
0.70M |
0.71M |
|
14:00 |
RUB |
Russian Retail Sales (YoY) |
7.7% |
7.3% |
6.8% |
|
14:00 |
RUB |
Russian Unemployment Rate |
6.5% |
6.7% |
6.6% |
|
16:30 |
USD |
4-Week Bill Auction |
0.100% |
0.070% |
10:30 GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the Bank of England’s policy setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates. The breakdown of the MPC members’ interest rate votes tends to be the most important part of the minutes.
13:30 CAD Leading Indicators (MoM)
The Leading Indicators Index is a composite index based on 10 economic indicators, that is designed to predict the future direction of the economy. The report tends to have a limited impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously.
15:00 USD Existing Home Sales
Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength.
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Mar 22 10:10 Sweden I/L bond auction
Mar 22 10.30 UK Auctions 0.625% 2042 I/L Gilt
Mar 22 15:00 US
Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Mar 27, 5Y Notes on Mar
28 & 7Y Notes on Mar 29
Originally posted here
