Tuesday, February 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a lower U.S. dollar index and higher gold and crude oil prices.
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The gold market has made an impressive recovery from the early-February low. April gold has rallied around $75 an ounce from its low of $1,044.50 scored on February 5. Key overhead technical resistance now lies at the last “reaction high” on the daily bar chart, which is located at the February high of $1,126.40. A solid price move in April gold above the last reaction high would negate the 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and would also be a strong technical clue that a near-term market low is in place in gold.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. The indexes are making a decent recovery from the early-February lows and bulls have gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum.
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,073.70 and then at Friday’s low of 1,060.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,086.80 and then at 1,100.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,094.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,795.75 and then at 1,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,776.25 and then at 1,765.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,804.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,100 and then more stops just below support at 10,050. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,155 and then at 10,192. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,136
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in early trading today. The bears have fresh downside near-term technical momentum on their side.March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 even and then at last week’s low of 116 23/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 16/32 and then at 117 28/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 4/32
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
136 23/32–lifetime high
119 6/32–Previous Month’s high
118 19/32–100-day moving average
118 9/32–18-day moving average
118 6/32–second pivot point resistance
118 6/32–9-day moving average
117 28/32–previous day’s high
117 28/32–first pivot point resistance
117 22/32–4-day moving average
117 18/32–pivot point
117 18/32–previous day’s close
117 8/32–previous day’s low
117 8/32–first pivot point support
116 30/32–second pivot point support
114 22/32–previous month’s low
110 3/32–lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.04.0 and then at 118.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.27.0 and then at 117.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.14.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
123 13/32–lifetime high
118 17/32–second pivot point resistance
118 9/32–first pivot point resistance
118 9/32–previous month’s high
118 8/32–4-day moving average
118 8/32–previous day’s high
118 4/32–9-day moving average
118 2/32–previous day’s close
118 1/32–pivot point
117 31/32–18-day moving average
117 25/32–first pivot point support
117 24/32–previous day’s low
117 17/32–second pivot point support
117 11/32–100-day moving average
114 31/32–previous month’s low
110 29/32–lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.44 and then at 81.61. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.00 and then at 79.77. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.08. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The March Euro is firmer in early electronic trading, on a short-covering bounce in a bear market. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3578 and then at last week’s low of 1.3531. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3683 and then at 1.3700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3758. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is solidly higher in early dealings today, amid the weaker U.S. dollar. Gold bulls have regained solid upside near-term technical momentum.For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,117.50 and then at 1,120.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $1,103.00 and then at $1,100.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,095.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls are regaining some fresh upside near-term technical momentum. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at last week’s high of $75.69 and then just above resistance at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $75.22. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on short covering and some fresh speculative buying interest. The key “outside markets” are in a bullish posture for the grains today, as the U.S. dollar index is weaker, while crude oil, gold and the U.S. stock indexes are higher. Grain market bears have lost downside technical momentum.
