Utilities stock sector ETF (XLU) Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 3 months on 7/3/14. Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 7/3/14.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/3/14 and is now systematically bullish. Absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/2/14 and is now systematically bullish.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/2/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing such that a bullish crossover appears likely in days ahead if price holds firm.

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose further above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/3/14. QQQ/SPY remains systematically neutral because the 50-day SMA is still below the 200-day SMA. Nevertheless, the 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing since 6/5/14 such that a bullish crossover appears to be likely in days ahead. Absolute price of QQQ has been making 13-year highs and remains systematically bullish.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,985.44, up 0.55%) absolute price opened higher work higher still to a strong close, capitalizing on expected pre-holiday (4th of July) seasonal tendencies, which have been bullish historically. SPX closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above all previous highs. The 5-year uptrend was confirmed again.

NYSE total volume fell 30% to a level 40% below its 200-day SMA, reflecting the early 1:00 pm ET close. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

For the very short term, end/beginning of month and pre-holiday (4th of July) seasonal tendencies have now expired.

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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/3/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose further above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/3/14. QQQ/SPY remains systematically neutral because the 50-day SMA is still below the 200-day SMA. Nevertheless, the 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing since 6/5/14 such that a bullish crossover appears to be likely in days ahead. Absolute price of QQQ has been making 13-year highs and remains systematically bullish.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 6/11/14, suggesting renewed weakness. EFA/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 6/30/14. OEF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 6/24/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has firmed up since 5/21/14 and is now systematically neutral. Absolute price rose new high on 7/1/14, thereby confirming its uptrend.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has firmed up since 5/21/14 and is now systematically neutral. Absolute price rose new high on 7/1/14, thereby confirming its uptrend.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 6/30/14–this after falling below its 50-day SMA on 6/25/14, and thereby reconfirming its long-term bearish trend. Price has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.60, 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 4 months on 7/1/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downside price pullback. DBA crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price peaked on 6/20/14 and corrected moderately lower since. USO rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 37.21, 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/2/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing such that a bullish crossover appears likely in days ahead if price holds firm. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/3/14 and is now systematically bullish. Absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/2/14 and is now systematically bullish.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/2/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 6/26/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 7/2/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
12.50% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
5.44% , PCAR , PACCAR
5.33% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
2.33% , RAI , Reynolds American
0.97% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
2.79% , OMC , OMNICOM
2.68% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
0.66% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
0.46% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.02% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
0.75% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.55% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
0.92% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.62% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
1.75% , NUE , NUCOR
0.62% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.62% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.39% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
2.39% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
0.33% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
0.03% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.21% , PID , Dividend International, PID
0.99% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
0.84% , GPS , GAP
0.46% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
1.34% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.92% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
0.78% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
1.33% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
0.29% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
3.17% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
0.63% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
0.80% , LM , LEGG MASON
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.48% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.32% , CHD , Church & Dwight
-1.29% , PCG , PG&E
-0.18% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-4.55% , MBI , MBIA
-2.30% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-0.33% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.79% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
-0.07% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.33% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.34% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.25% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.12% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.10% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.08% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.07% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.92% , Germany Index, EWG
0.92% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.92% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.90% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.89% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.88% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.86% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.83% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.79% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.79% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.77% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.75% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.75% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.74% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.72% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.72% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.69% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.68% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.67% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.66% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.66% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.64% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.64% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.63% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.63% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.63% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.63% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.63% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.62% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.62% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.60% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.60% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.59% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.59% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.58% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.57% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.56% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.55% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.55% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.53% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.53% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.53% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.53% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.52% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.51% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.51% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.50% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.50% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.49% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.49% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.49% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.49% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.48% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.48% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.47% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.47% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.47% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.47% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.46% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.46% , Spain Index, EWP
0.46% , Canada Index, EWC
0.46% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.46% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.45% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.45% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.45% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.45% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.44% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.43% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.41% , Water Resources, PHO
0.41% , France Index, EWQ
0.40% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.40% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.40% , Networking, IGN
0.40% , Italy Index, EWI
0.39% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.38% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.38% , Global 100, IOO
0.34% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.33% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.33% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.32% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.31% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.31% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.29% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.28% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.26% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.24% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.23% , Energy Global, IXC
0.22% , Russia MV, RSX
0.21% , Dividend International, PID
0.20% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.19% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.16% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.15% , Australia Index, EWA
0.10% , Austria Index, EWO
0.09% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.09% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.08% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.08% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.08% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.07% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.06% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.03% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.03% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.02% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.06% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.07% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.08% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.10% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.15% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.15% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.17% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.19% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.20% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.22% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.26% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.28% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.33% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.33% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.33% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.36% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.38% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.39% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.42% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.47% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.48% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.52% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.54% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.57% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.59% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.68% , India PS, PIN
-0.95% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.09% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
none

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1944.69, low of 6/26/2014
1925.78 , low of 6/12/2014
1917.62, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1830.50, 200-day SMA
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009