OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight trading was further gains in the gold market, extending to a five-week high. The U.S. dollar is higher versus the other major currencies. Stock indexes are weaker in early electronic trading. U.S. Treasuries are slightly lower. There was no major market-moving geopolitical news overnight. However, violence in Israel did escalate overnight.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the U.S. trade deficit report, DOE weekly energy stocks data, and the MBA refinancing index.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are slightly lower in early morning electronic trading. Just as we’ve seen recently, my bias is still that trading will remain choppier in the near term, with no strong trends developing.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day today. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bearish today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at last week’s low of 1,271.10. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at Tuesday’s low of 1,267.50. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is the overnight high of 1,283.70. Light buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and heavier buy stops are likely located just above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of 1,289.70.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
1st Support:—— 1,272.35
2nd Support:—— 1,262.45
1st Resistance:— 1,287.40
2nd Resistance:— 1,292.45
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are fully bearish. The 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day moving averages. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are bearish today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday’s contract low of 1,522.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,500.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 1,558.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at 1,580.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
1st Support:—— 1,528.25
2nd Support:—— 1,511.75
1st Resistance:— 1,555.25
2nd Resistance:— 1,565.75
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday’s low of 11,087 and then just below support at of 11,000. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 11,240 and then more buy stops just above resistance 11,300. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. But the 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
1st Support:—— 11,126
2nd Support:—— 11,042
1st Resistance:— 11,254
2nd Resistance:— 11,298
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are weaker in early trading in Chicago. Technical odds are still increasing that near-term lows are in place in bonds and notes.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are fully bullish again today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is now above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bearish today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107 5/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above solid shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 107 15/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday’s low of 106 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at this week’s low of 106 18/32.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 107 4/32
1st Support:—– 106 26/32
2nd Support:—– 106 14/32
1st Resistance:– 107 16/32
2nd Resistance:– 107 26/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators are bearish today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at the overnight high of 105.02.5, and then just above resistance at Tuesday’s high of 105.07.0. Shorter-term moving averages are fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, and is above the 18-day. The 9-day is now above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Tuesday’s low and the overnight low of 104.27.0, and then more sell stops just below support at this week’s low of 104.22.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
1st Support:—— 104.28.0
2nd Support:—— 104.21.0
1st Resistance:— 105.08.0
2nd Resistance:— 105.13.0