Friday, November 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower U.S. stock index futures prices and sharply higher gold prices.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Fridays are an extra important trading day, as it’s the last trading day of the week. The last trading days of the month and of the quarter are also extra important for markets, technically. Weekly high closes in a market are significantly technically bullish, while weekly low closes are significantly technically bearish. Also, many traders on Fridays like to “even up” their trading positions heading into the weekend, which can make for more trading volume.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today, after big gains on Thursday. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes. However, my bias is that market bottoms are close at hand.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 889.00 and then at 875.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Thursday’s high of 914.00 and then at 926.90. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 894.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 879.75
1st Support:——– 845.50
2nd Support:——– 783.25
1st Resistance:—– 942.00
2nd Resistance:—– 976.25
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,180.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,239.25 and then at 1,250.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,230.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,195.20
1st Support:—— 1,147.35
2nd Support:—— 1,060.20
1st Resistance:— 1,282.35
2nd Resistance:— 1,330.20
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,700 and then more stops just below support at 8,600. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,800 and then just above resistance at 8,900. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,777
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,549
1st Support:—— 8,228
2nd Support:—— 7,626
1st Resistance:— 9,151
2nd Resistance:— 9,472
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer early today. Bulls need to show power today, to keep their near-term technical advantage, after Thursday’s drubbing.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 117 even and then at the overnight low of 116 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 20/32 and then at 118 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 5/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 117 6/32
1st Support:—– 115 23/32 2nd Support:—– 114 31/32
1st Resistance:– 117 30/32
2nd Resistance:– 119 13/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.22.5 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.03.5 and then at 116.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.11.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 116 12/32
1st Support:—– 115 15/32 2nd Support:—– 114 31/32
1st Resistance:– 116 28/32
2nd Resistance:– 117 25/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today, on profit-taking pressure after setting a fresh contract high on Thursday. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 87.35 and then at 87.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 87.13 and then at 87.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.71. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The December Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.2648 and then just below support at 1.2600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2750 and then at the overnight high of 1.2815. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2694. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is strongly higher in early dealings today, on short covering and bargain-hunting buying. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $737.90 and then at $750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $724.00 and then at $717.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $718.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today, on short covering in a bear market. Prices hit a fresh 22-month low on Thursday. Bears are still in near-term technical control. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $60.00 and then just above resistance at $61.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $57.11 and then more sell stops just below support at $56.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $58.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed but mostly higher in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are slightly bullish early today–crude oil prices are firmer and the U.S. dollar is weaker. Traders will scrutinize today’s weekly USDA export sales report, delayed by one day due to the holiday on Tuesday. Grain bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grains.
